Game Recap: MTL 3, CAR 1, March 29, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalSun, Mar 29, 2026Every game that night

CAR1

MTL beat CAR 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.41 expected goals to 4.33. CAR outshot MTL 35 to 18. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Dobes stopped 34 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	3	0	3
CAR	1	0	0	1

1st 8:37CARA. SvechnikovPP0.06 xG
2nd 6:18MTLN. Suzuki0.24 xG
2nd 17:32MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
2nd 19:53MTLN. SuzukiPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

MTLCAR

18Shots on goal35

2.41Expected goals4.33

41Shot attempts100

75v5 shots on goal29

1/4Power play1/3

21Hits29

32Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.41 xGCAR 4.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL18 on goal, 3 scored

CAR35 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	2	1	3	5	1	1	+2	2	20:17	3:39
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	15:45	3:32
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	19:49	3:49
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:20	3:42
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	17:55	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:14	2:08
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:41	2:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:34	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:11	2:25
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:41	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:27	2:36
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	0	0	4	+2	0	19:31	3:36
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	23:23	0:20
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	22:07	2:32
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	19:42	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	19:05	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:30	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	5:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	35	34	1	.971	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	19:30	3:16
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-1	0	19:13	3:13
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	2	16:56	3:14
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:43	1:31
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:38	1:29
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	18:08	2:43
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	17:37	1:44
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:24	1:32
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:02	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:43	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:59	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	20:25	3:19
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	19:33	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:07	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	19:07	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:12	1:30
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:18	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	18	15	3	.833	55:52	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský14:08N. Suzuki14:27C. Caufield12:09

Line 2A. Newhook13:19O. Kapanen11:07I. Demidov11:30

Line 3J. Evans12:05P. Danault11:26Z. Bolduc10:57

Line 4B. Gallagher8:43J. Veleno9:16

Pair 1M. Matheson18:09N. Dobson15:52

Pair 2K. Guhle15:46A. Carrier13:45

Pair 3L. Hutson15:35J. Struble10:30

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven15:19J. Blake15:01T. Hall14:20

Line 2S. Jarvis13:04S. Aho11:54A. Svechnikov11:55

Line 3J. Staal11:31J. Martinook10:55N. Ehlers12:25

Line 4M. Jankowski6:01E. Robinson6:07W. Carrier5:59

Pair 1S. Walker15:06K. Miller15:45

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:01A. Nikishin15:18

Pair 3J. Slavin14:10J. Chatfield14:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, CAR 3.5	MTL 3, CAR 1
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	MTL 22.6, CAR 32.3	MTL 18, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 60%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	5	0.83	1	31%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.6	3	0.81	2	33%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	3	0.81	0	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	1	0.95	1	33%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	4	0.76	1	28%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.1	2	0.30	0	8%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	3	0.57	0	23%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	3	0.49	0	19%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.71	1	23%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	2	0.60	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	5	0.92	3	25%	2
MTL N. Dobson	1.7	4	0.49	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	1	0.31	0	7%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	3	0.46	0	10%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	3	0.55	0	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.48	0	20%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	1	0.38	0	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	0	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.25	0	8%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	0	0.70	1	18%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.42	0	19%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	1	0.40	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.71	2	8%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.2	0	0.33	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.21	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.38	0	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.0	0	0.34	0	12%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.28	0	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.9	0	0.25	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.24	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	0	0.06	0	2%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.