Game Recap: MTL 6, CAR 2, May 21, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL6

FinalThu, May 21, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR2

MTL beat CAR 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 3.10. J. Slafkovský led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Dobes stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	4	0	2	6
CAR	1	1	0	2

1st 0:33CARS. Jarvis0.02 xG
1st 1:00MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
1st 4:04MTLP. Danault0.18 xG
1st 8:11MTLA. Texier0.29 xG
1st 11:32MTLI. Demidov0.34 xG
2nd 2:46CARE. Robinson0.20 xG
3rd 7:05MTLJ. Slafkovský0.30 xG
3rd 17:32MTLJ. SlafkovskýEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

MTLCAR

22Shots on goal27

3.93Expected goals3.10

44Shot attempts82

155v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

18Hits44

30Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways16

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.93 xGCAR 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 6 scored

CAR28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	3	3	4	2	1	+2	2	18:30	1:33
J. Slafkovský	LW	2	1	3	4	1	1	+3	0	16:41	1:34
P. Danault	C	1	1	2	2	3	4	+2	0	15:49	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:19	1:27
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:45	0:45
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	17:06	0:00
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:23	0:53
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	12:16	1:08
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	14:36	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:30	0:52
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:39	0:56
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+4	2	19:14	0:13
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	18:48	0:02
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	22:36	1:31
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:35	1:21
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	2	21:04	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	14:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	2	16:38	1:38
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	0	15:31	1:38
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	1	5	1	-2	2	14:36	1:38
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	10:35	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	9:37	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-3	0	19:46	0:49
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:46	1:50
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	17:21	0:49
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	17:05	0:49
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	13:33	0:37
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	12:46	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:45	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	21:17	0:49
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-4	0	20:49	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	20:40	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	18:58	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:41	1:38
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	21	16	5	.762	57:11	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:15J. Slafkovský13:31C. Caufield12:18

Line 2P. Danault13:12J. Anderson11:55A. Texier12:17

Line 3J. Evans12:05I. Demidov10:10A. Newhook11:57

Line 4Z. Bolduc10:38K. Dach9:43O. Kapanen8:59

Pair 1M. Matheson15:57N. Dobson15:57

Pair 2A. Carrier14:37K. Guhle15:39

Pair 3L. Hutson17:20J. Struble14:10

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:50J. Blake15:45T. Hall14:46

Line 2S. Aho12:22S. Jarvis10:53A. Svechnikov10:59

Line 3J. Martinook11:24N. Ehlers11:50J. Staal10:18

Line 4M. Jankowski9:15W. Carrier9:06E. Robinson8:28

Pair 1S. Walker17:45K. Miller17:41

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:02A. Nikishin14:59

Pair 3J. Slavin14:27J. Chatfield13:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, CAR 3.6	MTL 6, CAR 2
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	MTL 22.2, CAR 33.1	MTL 22, CAR 27
Win chance	CAR 63%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	3.0	5	0.87	1	33%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.90	0	31%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	1	0.78	2	33%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.6	3	0.97	1	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	1	0.77	1	29%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	2	0.56	0	24%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	4	0.65	0	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	4	0.71	3	24%	2
CAR S. Walker	2.1	1	0.36	0	9%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.0	1	0.66	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	4	0.98	3	27%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	0	0.65	0	13%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.8	0	0.32	0	7%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	3	0.67	1	19%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.7	0	0.49	0	20%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.43	0	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.49	0	10%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.6	2	0.27	0	8%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.6	1	0.43	0	9%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	0	0.46	1	20%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	1	0.78	0	9%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.3	1	0.36	0	8%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.2	2	0.37	1	15%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.25	1	12%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.23	1	12%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	1	0.30	0	8%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.39	1	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.0	2	0.34	2	12%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.30	0	15%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.9	1	0.30	0	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	1	0.26	0	11%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.9	0	0.25	1	5%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.27	1	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.