Game Recap: MTL 2, CAR 3 (OT), May 23, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL2

Final/OTSat, May 23, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR3

CAR beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.69 expected goals to 1.66. CAR outshot MTL 26 to 12. N. Ehlers led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Andersen stopped 10 of 12.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	0	1	0	2
CAR	1	1	0	1	3

1st 2:33CARE. Robinson0.07 xG
1st 11:11MTLJ. Anderson0.26 xG
2nd 17:03CARN. Ehlers0.18 xG
3rd 12:51MTLJ. Anderson0.05 xG
OT 3:29CARN. Ehlers0.09 xG

Team Stats

MTLCAR

12Shots on goal26

1.66Expected goals2.69

38Shot attempts67

125v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits46

19Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways20

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 1.66 xGCAR 2.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL12 on goal, 2 scored

CAR25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	0	2	2	+2	0	14:33	0:06
J. Anderson	RW	2	0	2	2	0	1	+2	0	14:33	0:06
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:47	0:06
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	19:45	2:45
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:15	0:45
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:51	2:49
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:53	2:46
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:42	2:30
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	13:01	0:49
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:53	0:43
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:22	0:48
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:01	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+2	0	22:14	0:06
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	19:23	0:06
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	24:52	2:54
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	24:34	0:56
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	20:50	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	11:56	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	26	23	3	.885	63:29	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	2	0	2	5	2	0	+2	0	18:39	3:08
M. Jankowski	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	12:08	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	10:12	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	9:39	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	20:35	4:42
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	20:29	4:36
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	6	1	-1	2	17:57	4:32
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	17:32	1:06
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	10	1	+2	0	16:39	2:14
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	16:11	1:02
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:10	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:33	1:08
J. Chatfield	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+3	0	23:22	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	22:21	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	23:05	1:14
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	20:32	0:12
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:45	4:26
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	12	10	2	.833	63:29	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:40J. Slafkovský16:00C. Caufield14:47

Line 2J. Evans15:12A. Newhook14:01I. Demidov13:12

Line 3P. Danault13:15J. Anderson13:17A. Texier12:12

Line 4Z. Bolduc12:10K. Dach10:34O. Kapanen10:01

Pair 1A. Carrier17:21K. Guhle18:05

Pair 2M. Matheson16:21N. Dobson22:28

Pair 3L. Hutson21:38J. Struble11:51

CAR

Line 1J. Blake16:20L. Stankoven15:09T. Hall14:19

Line 2S. Aho14:25S. Jarvis14:09A. Svechnikov13:25

Line 3J. Martinook14:10N. Ehlers15:31J. Staal12:33

Line 4M. Jankowski11:42E. Robinson9:54W. Carrier9:39

Pair 1J. Slavin20:15J. Chatfield21:17

Pair 2K. Miller20:02S. Walker18:32

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:13A. Nikishin13:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, CAR 3.5	MTL 2, CAR 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	MTL 22.1, CAR 32.8	MTL 12, CAR 26
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	4	0.84	0	32%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	5	0.89	2	30%	2
MTL C. Caufield	2.6	1	0.78	0	32%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	2	0.93	0	33%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	3	0.75	0	28%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	1	0.56	0	24%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.3	0	0.65	0	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	1	0.72	0	24%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	1	0.34	0	9%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.1	1	0.66	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	2	0.98	0	27%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	1	0.64	0	13%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	0	0.31	1	7%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	1	0.65	0	19%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.6	0	0.43	0	9%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	1	0.48	0	20%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	0	0.47	0	10%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	2	0.26	2	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	2	0.31	2	16%	2
MTL A. Texier	1.3	1	0.39	0	15%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.75	0	9%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	2	0.26	1	12%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.2	1	0.34	0	7%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.23	1	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.40	0	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.36	2	13%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.30	2	15%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.9	0	0.31	0	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.8	0	0.25	1	5%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	1	0.27	1	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.