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Game Recap
MTL1
CAR6
CAR beat MTL 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.99 expected goals to 2.59. L. Stankoven led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). F. Andersen stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CAR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 9:17CART. Hall0.14 xG
- 1st 15:12CARL. Stankoven0.05 xG
- 1st 16:52CARE. Robinson0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:19CARJ. Blake0.54 xG
- 2nd 18:02CARS. GostisbeherePP0.20 xG
- 3rd 10:50MTLC. CaufieldPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:19CARS. JarvisEN0.67 xG
Team Stats
MTLCAR
24Shots on goal30
2.59Expected goals4.99
48Shot attempts45
165v5 shots on goal23
1/5Power play1/5
11Hits18
3Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes10
10Giveaways18
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.59 xGCAR 4.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 5:42 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:04 | 6:15 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:58 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 6:18 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:05 | 6:03 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:02 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 2:50 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 3:21 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 2:50 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:59 | 6:13 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:09 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:37 | 2:54 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:00 | 4:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:26 | 4:01 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:36 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:53 | 4:01 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:44 | 3:34 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:20 | 6:31 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 14:18 | 3:39 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 1:08 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:55 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:54 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:52 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 2:10 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 16:53 | 4:39 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 12:14 | 0:58 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:55 | 4:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 1:07 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 1:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1C. Caufield11:04N. Suzuki12:08J. Slafkovský10:31
Line 2P. Danault9:55J. Anderson9:36A. Texier6:54
Line 3A. Newhook11:56I. Demidov10:29J. Evans12:36
Pair 1M. Matheson15:58A. Carrier14:37
Pair 2J. Struble11:07L. Hutson13:54
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven11:34J. Blake11:29T. Hall11:11
Line 2S. Aho10:50A. Svechnikov10:13S. Jarvis10:10
Line 3J. Staal9:12J. Martinook8:49N. Ehlers9:14
Line 4W. Carrier8:43E. Robinson8:54M. Jankowski8:03
Pair 1J. Slavin14:34J. Chatfield13:57
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:57A. Nikishin10:56
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.6, CAR 3.6 | MTL 1, CAR 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 20.6, CAR 33.9 | MTL 24, CAR 30 |
| Win chance | CAR 66% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 4 | 0.55 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 3 | 0.95 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.7 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.