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Game Recap
MTL0
CGY1
CGY beat MTL 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.53 expected goals to 2.52. C. Caufield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 16:21CGYJ. Farabee0.10 xG
Team Stats
MTLCGY
26Shots on goal24
2.52Expected goals1.53
57Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/1
25Hits18
16Blocked shots9
2Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways23
7Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.52 xGCGY 1.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 4:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 2:33 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 | 2:33 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 1:27 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:27 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 2:33 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 1:27 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:48 | 1:27 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:40 | 2:33 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 57:24 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 0:03 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:46 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:40 | 1:45 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:14 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:50 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:44 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:07 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:15 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:57 | 0:57 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:16 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 1:03 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, CGY 3.1 | MTL 0, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.1, CGY 29.8 | MTL 26, CGY 24 |
| Win chance | CGY 53% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.5 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 6 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.