Game Recap: MTL 2, CGY 1 (OT), October 22, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL2

Final/OTWed, Oct 22, 2025Every game that night

CGY1

MTL beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 2.00. CGY outshot MTL 37 to 28. R. Andersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Dobes stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	0	0	1	2
CGY	0	0	1	0	1

1st 17:09MTLZ. BolducPP0.12 xG
3rd 5:56CGYA. Klapka0.09 xG
OT 1:00MTLM. Matheson0.17 xG

Team Stats

MTLCGY

28Shots on goal37

3.02Expected goals2.00

46Shot attempts74

225v5 shots on goal30

1/3Power play0/5

17Hits23

25Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.02 xGCGY 2.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL26 on goal, 2 scored

CGY36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:05	2:45
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	16:08	0:12
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:46	0:54
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	10:45	1:44
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:17	0:05
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:02	1:50
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	16:50	1:52
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:41	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	13:33	0:45
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:34	0:47
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:22	0:12
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:58	0:05
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	2	25:26	0:17
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:23	1:56
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	-1	2	23:42	1:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	21:20	0:13
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:16	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	37	36	1	.973	61:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	2	12:59	4:27
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	3	4	1	+1	2	10:00	0:07
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:46	5:39
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:50	5:31
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:55	5:31
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:50	2:33
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	19:39	0:28
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	15:32	2:46
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:12	3:05
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:39	0:10
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	8:26	0:03
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	5	2	3	+1	0	27:46	4:36
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	5	3	1	-1	2	22:41	3:06
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:42	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:41	0:09
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:42	2:59
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:08	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	28	26	2	.929	61:00	OT loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:30J. Slafkovský14:58C. Caufield13:55

Line 2J. Anderson12:22J. Evans11:51B. Gallagher11:47

Line 3A. Newhook11:40O. Kapanen10:29I. Demidov11:32

Line 4J. Veleno10:03Z. Bolduc8:52J. Roy7:53

Pair 1M. Matheson18:51N. Dobson18:31

Pair 2J. Struble12:52L. Hutson18:46

Pair 3A. Carrier15:20A. Xhekaj10:03

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri15:55J. Huberdeau14:06J. Farabee12:31

Line 2M. Backlund15:29B. Coleman15:03M. Coronato14:23

Line 3C. Zary9:07M. Frost8:32S. Honzek9:26

Line 4A. Klapka9:53R. Lomberg8:23J. Kirkland8:09

Pair 1M. Weegar20:34J. Bean18:33

Pair 2K. Bahl17:46R. Andersson16:31

Pair 3J. Hanley11:11Z. Parekh9:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, CGY 3.1	MTL 2, CGY 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	MTL 25.8, CGY 29.3	MTL 28, CGY 37
Win chance	CGY 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	3	0.93	0	33%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.79	0	33%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	0	0.54	0	24%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	2	0.63	0	25%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	5	0.62	0	13%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.96	1	28%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.52	0	9%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.1	1	0.48	0	20%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	0	0.85	0	26%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	4	0.63	0	23%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.0	5	0.44	0	18%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.0	5	0.43	0	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	2	0.47	0	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.8	2	0.50	1	22%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.7	3	0.52	1	18%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.39	1	7%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.6	0	0.43	0	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	0	0.38	1	17%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.4	1	0.27	0	8%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.4	1	0.17	0	11%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	3	0.36	1	16%	1
MTL J. Roy	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.68	1	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.38	0	12%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.1	1	0.50	1	14%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	3	0.26	0	13%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	2	0.22	0	10%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	0	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	3	0.16	0	4%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	1	0.24	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.