CHI beat MTL 4-2, with the chances close: 4.04 expected goals to 3.71. MTL outshot CHI 40 to 26. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Matheson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Soderblom stopped 38 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 3:21CHIT. BertuzziPP0.20 xG
- 1st 18:24MTLC. Caufield0.16 xG
- 2nd 7:05CHIN. Foligno0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:01CHIP. Maroon0.19 xG
- 3rd 9:45MTLE. HeinemanPP0.34 xG
- 3rd 15:51CHIN. Foligno0.37 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.71 xGCHI 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 3:48 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:51 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:41 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:23 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 3:52 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:51 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:01 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 3:34 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:10 | 1:50 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:44 | 3:45 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:12 | 0:19 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 56:11 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Foligno | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:27 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:04 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 5:11 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:39 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 5:06 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 3:38 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:54 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:36 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:04 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 1:17 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:50 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 23:11 | 1:14 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 24:52 | 4:39 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:21 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 40 | 38 | 2 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.2, CHI 2.9 | MTL 2, CHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.1, CHI 27.7 | MTL 40, CHI 26 |
| Win chance | MTL 54% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 7 | 0.78 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 4 | 0.97 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 8 | 0.64 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.7 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.