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Game Recap
MTL3
CHI2
MTL beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 1.97. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). R. Donato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Montembeault stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 2:45MTLC. CaufieldPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 4:34CHIS. Rinzel0.05 xG
- 2nd 5:45MTLZ. BolducPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 9:15CHIC. BedardPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:45MTLK. Guhle0.04 xG
Team Stats
MTLCHI
28Shots on goal22
3.43Expected goals1.97
59Shot attempts44
155v5 shots on goal17
2/10Power play1/4
16Hits22
8Blocked shots16
17Penalty minutes39
14Giveaways14
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.43 xGCHI 1.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:56 | 10:46 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 10:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 10:22 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 10:09 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:05 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 6:06 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 5:12 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 6:29 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:33 | 6:01 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:15 | 0:05 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:26 | 9:31 |
| K. Guhle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16:32 | 0:06 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:34 | 6:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 1:31 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:02 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:46 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 3:31 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 3:43 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:23 | 4:01 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:02 | 2:15 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 2:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:33 | 3:59 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 2:23 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:58 | 4:07 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:15 | 0:03 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:48 | 0:15 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 | 1:40 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 9:35 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 59:45 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki10:56J. Slafkovský10:28C. Caufield9:21
Line 2A. Newhook10:45O. Kapanen9:14I. Demidov8:16
Line 3J. Anderson9:29J. Evans9:21P. Laine7:18
Line 4B. Gallagher7:23K. Dach8:58Z. Bolduc6:19
Pair 1M. Matheson15:33N. Dobson14:14
Pair 3A. Carrier11:04A. Xhekaj6:33
CHI
Line 1A. Burakovsky14:04C. Dach13:08C. Bedard13:49
Line 2T. Teravainen9:12F. Nazar8:48T. Bertuzzi10:19
Line 3I. Mikheyev5:58R. Greene6:30R. Donato10:56
Line 4S. Lafferty4:29L. Reichel6:27N. Foligno5:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.2, CHI 2.8 | MTL 3, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.3, CHI 25.4 | MTL 28, CHI 22 |
| Win chance | MTL 56% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.4 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.4 | 2 | 1.06 | 3 | 31% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.3 | 6 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.3 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 2.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 2.0 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.