MTL beat COL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.57. M. Rantanen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Dobes stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 9:01COLM. RantanenPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:25MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.35 xGCOL 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:41 | 3:42 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 3:42 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:22 | 3:43 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 0:56 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:57 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:47 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:57 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:52 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:21 | 3:40 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 28:00 | 0:59 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 24:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:24 | 6:09 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:14 | 6:41 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 4:50 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 5:37 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:33 | 3:27 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:01 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:02 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | 1:18 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 1:55 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| O. Olausson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 29:04 | 5:11 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 25:46 | 2:33 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 1:45 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 64:54 | OT loss |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, COL 4.0 | MTL 2, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.9, COL 32.7 | MTL 23, COL 23 |
| Win chance | COL 69% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 2 | 1.74 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.2 | 1 | 1.38 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 7 | 1.42 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.4 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.0 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.7 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.5 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.