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Game Recap
MTL2
COL7
COL beat MTL 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.21. COL outshot MTL 36 to 23. B. Nelson led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). G. Landeskog had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. M. Blackwood stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 7:32COLB. Nelson0.18 xG
- 1st 13:25COLG. Landeskog0.19 xG
- 2nd 0:50COLB. Burns0.05 xG
- 2nd 3:55COLB. Nelson0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:27MTLI. Demidov0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:05COLN. MacKinnon0.34 xG
- 3rd 2:51COLD. Toews0.16 xG
- 3rd 5:10MTLL. HutsonPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:52COLG. LandeskogPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
MTLCOL
23Shots on goal36
2.21Expected goals3.96
43Shot attempts72
175v5 shots on goal25
1/2Power play1/4
27Hits13
17Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways18
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.21 xGCOL 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:33 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:47 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:32 | 0:50 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:47 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:51 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 13:55 | 0:14 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:47 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:15 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:11 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:54 |
| F. Xhekaj | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:30 | 1:47 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:19 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:46 | 1:05 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 36 | 29 | 7 | .806 | 60:00 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 17:00 | 1:30 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:06 | 3:39 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:12 | 3:33 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:33 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:14 | 3:37 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:33 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:58 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 3:29 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:02 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1:59 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:30 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 21:14 | 3:40 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:11 | 3:25 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:36 | 0:04 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 2:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:03 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:58 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki14:55C. Caufield14:14Z. Bolduc12:07
Line 2J. Slafkovský12:58I. Demidov12:22O. Kapanen11:24
Line 3J. Anderson11:32A. Texier11:39J. Evans11:01
Line 4J. Veleno10:50F. Xhekaj10:35B. Gallagher10:15
Pair 1M. Matheson15:21N. Dobson18:47
Pair 2L. Hutson19:40A. Engstrom13:29
Pair 3A. Carrier15:38A. Xhekaj13:08
COL
Line 1A. Lehkonen13:13M. Necas14:25N. MacKinnon10:28
Line 2B. Nelson14:34R. Colton13:19G. Landeskog11:38
Line 3J. Drury12:00P. Kelly12:09V. Olofsson10:40
Line 4J. Kiviranta10:25Z. Bardakov10:42I. Ivan10:23
Pair 1S. Malinski17:32S. Girard17:12
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.6, COL 3.8 | MTL 2, COL 7 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 23.3, COL 32.4 | MTL 23, COL 36 |
| Win chance | COL 68% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 5 | 1.57 | 3 | 43% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 3 | 1.23 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.7 | 0 | 0.91 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 32% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.3 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.2 | 5 | 0.80 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 4 | 32% | 2 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.