Game Recap: MTL 4, DET 3, December 20, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalFri, Dec 20, 2024Every game that night

DET3

MTL beat DET 4-3, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 2.71. J. Evans led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Copp had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	2	0	2	4
DET	2	0	1	3

1st 7:09MTLE. Heineman0.02 xG
1st 13:27DETP. Kane0.03 xG
1st 18:31MTLJ. EvansSH0.14 xG
1st 19:27DETJ. Veleno0.03 xG
3rd 1:40DETT. Motte0.25 xG
3rd 8:42MTLA. Xhekaj0.05 xG
3rd 12:02MTLP. LainePP0.06 xG

Team Stats

MTLDET

33Shots on goal28

2.85Expected goals2.71

64Shot attempts50

285v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/4

12Hits12

9Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways15

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.85 xGDET 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL32 on goal, 4 scored

DET26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Evans	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+3	0	16:02	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	9:39	0:39
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	16:59	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	16:49	2:50
P. Laine	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	2	13:37	2:50
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:43	2:50
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	17:41	2:50
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:18	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:48	0:39
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	12:25	0:39
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:11	0:39
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	24:21	0:39
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	20:26	2:50
A. Xhekaj	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	14:36	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	19:49	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	18:58	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rasmussen	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	13:31	0:23
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:24	4:33
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:06	4:34
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	17:11	2:51
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	11:40	0:00
T. Motte	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:49	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:57	4:43
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:55	4:46
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:43	3:25
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:07	3:23
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:17	3:18
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	10:28	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:10	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	27:17	4:46
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+3	0	22:59	0:03
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:06	0:01
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:51	3:14
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	9:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	33	29	4	.879	58:02	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, DET 3.4	MTL 4, DET 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	MTL 26.5, DET 29.3	MTL 33, DET 28
Win chance	DET 57%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET D. Larkin	2.9	3	1.09	0	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	3	0.75	1	31%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	2	0.83	1	31%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.4	3	0.72	1	28%	1
DET P. Kane	2.4	4	0.80	1	25%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.3	1	1.05	0	34%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	2.1	3	0.69	0	27%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	1	0.70	1	13%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	2	0.69	0	10%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.8	1	0.78	0	25%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	3	0.43	0	18%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	2	0.36	1	16%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	0	0.34	0	14%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	1	0.55	0	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	2	0.33	0	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	3	0.34	0	18%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	0	0.51	2	20%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.4	3	0.25	1	7%	1
MTL K. Dach	1.4	1	0.40	0	13%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.63	0	22%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	1	0.40	0	14%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	1	0.42	0	18%	0
DET T. Motte	1.2	1	0.20	1	12%	1
DET A. Copp	1.2	4	0.46	1	17%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.63	1	5%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.32	0	8%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	1	0.40	1	6%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	0	0.39	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	2	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	2	0.33	2	16%	1
DET C. Fischer	1.0	1	0.26	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	2	0.41	2	12%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.8	2	0.24	1	11%	1
MTL D. Savard	0.7	2	0.30	0	5%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.