DET beat MTL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.91 expected goals to 2.45. DET outshot MTL 45 to 29. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Larkin had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Talbot stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DET | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 13:00DETJ. Berggren0.18 xG
- 1st 19:56DETA. DeBrincat0.06 xG
- 2nd 4:25DETA. CoppSH0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:29MTLK. Dach0.06 xG
- 2nd 7:50DETD. LarkinPP0.60 xG
- 2nd 11:06MTLK. Guhle0.01 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.45 xGDET 4.91 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:06 | 2:02 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 3:14 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:58 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:02 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:21 | 3:14 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:02 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:14 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:41 | 3:14 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:09 | 2:02 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 23:42 | 3:14 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:04 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 45 | 41 | 4 | .911 | 57:57 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:49 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:49 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:53 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 4:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:17 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:55 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:52 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:10 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:47 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27:15 | 3:45 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:19 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:12 | 1:53 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:06 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.0, DET 3.3 | MTL 2, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.7, DET 28.8 | MTL 29, DET 45 |
| Win chance | DET 54% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 9 | 0.96 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.