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Game Recap
MTL5
DET1
MTL beat DET 5-1, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 2.61. DET outshot MTL 31 to 17. M. Matheson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Seider had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Dobes stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:50DETD. LarkinPP0.16 xG
- 1st 10:14MTLZ. Bolduc0.14 xG
- 1st 12:43MTLO. Kapanen0.20 xG
- 1st 19:53MTLM. Matheson0.10 xG
- 2nd 5:19MTLA. Carrier0.01 xG
- 2nd 17:12MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.45 xG
Team Stats
MTLDET
17Shots on goal31
2.14Expected goals2.61
38Shot attempts59
125v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play1/4
25Hits34
14Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways17
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.14 xGDET 2.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:56 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 14:03 | 2:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:54 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:52 | 2:57 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:07 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:54 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:10 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:11 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:19 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:50 | 1:48 |
| A. Carrier | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:41 | 2:19 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 5:29 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 5:27 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 5:34 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 5:28 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:54 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:02 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:41 | 0:47 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:59 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:10 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:07 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:08 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:51 | 5:22 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:14 | 0:25 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:34 | 1:13 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1J. Anderson13:21J. Evans12:30P. Laine12:34
Line 2N. Suzuki12:50C. Caufield12:23J. Slafkovský12:32
Line 3K. Dach12:49Z. Bolduc11:44B. Gallagher11:58
Line 4A. Newhook12:08I. Demidov11:07O. Kapanen11:07
Pair 2M. Matheson16:14N. Dobson14:27
Pair 3A. Carrier14:05A. Xhekaj15:22
DET
Line 1P. Kane12:54A. DeBrincat13:28M. Kasper13:34
Line 2A. Copp14:05M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:24J. Compher12:19
Line 3L. Raymond10:52E. Finnie12:00D. Larkin11:34
Line 4M. Appleton11:44E. Soderblom10:35M. Rasmussen10:22
Pair 1S. Edvinsson20:52A. Sandin-Pellikka19:49
Pair 2B. Chiarot15:09M. Seider15:57
Pair 3T. Hamonic12:40A. Johansson14:07
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, DET 3.5 | MTL 5, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.5, DET 29.7 | MTL 17, DET 31 |
| Win chance | DET 61% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.2 | 5 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 5 | 0.94 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.8 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 1 | 0.97 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 5 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.7 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.