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Game Recap
MTL1
DET3
DET beat MTL 3-1, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 2.78. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Slafkovský had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 2nd 17:45MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 2:14DETJ. Compher0.17 xG
- 3rd 16:35DETA. DeBrincat0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:43DETA. CoppEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
MTLDET
33Shots on goal28
2.78Expected goals3.44
64Shot attempts63
265v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/2
27Hits35
14Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways19
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.78 xGDET 3.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:24 | 1:57 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:59 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:56 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:56 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:17 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:16 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:16 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:59 | 1:57 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:17 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:14 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:35 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:35 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:25 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:35 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:25 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:18 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:21 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:46 | 2:35 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Dries | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:53 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 26:41 | 0:07 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 24:39 | 2:35 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:25 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:36 | 0:04 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki15:51J. Slafkovský14:43C. Caufield13:38
Line 3B. Gallagher11:08P. Danault10:51J. Veleno9:47
Line 4A. Newhook9:00I. Demidov8:11O. Kapanen6:25
Pair 1M. Matheson16:51N. Dobson17:54
Pair 2A. Carrier16:47K. Guhle14:44
Pair 3L. Hutson18:14J. Struble12:52
DET
Line 1J. Compher16:36A. DeBrincat14:22P. Kane13:49
Line 2L. Raymond15:04E. Finnie13:57D. Perron13:06
Line 3M. Appleton13:37M. Kasper15:18A. Copp13:05
Line 4D. Shine5:14S. Dries3:53J. Riemsdyk6:11
Pair 1M. Seider19:40S. Edvinsson21:26
Pair 2B. Chiarot16:20J. Faulk16:37
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:09A. Johansson11:36
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.2, DET 3.2 | MTL 1, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.9, DET 27.9 | MTL 33, DET 28 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.5 | 4 | 1.06 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.7 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 0 | 0.97 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.2 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET D. Perron | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET S. Dries | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.