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Game Recap
MTL2
EDM3
EDM beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.55 expected goals to 2.88. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Skinner stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 9:34EDMC. Perry0.25 xG
- 1st 15:14MTLC. Caufield0.03 xG
- 2nd 1:06EDML. DraisaitlPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 10:19MTLJ. Armia0.12 xG
- OT 4:53EDME. Bouchard0.20 xG
Team Stats
MTLEDM
27Shots on goal32
2.88Expected goals3.55
49Shot attempts76
195v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play1/3
29Hits21
24Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways10
2Takeaways12
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.88 xGEDM 3.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:01 | 2:14 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:16 | 3:57 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 2:07 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:03 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:35 | 1:50 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:03 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:43 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 1:41 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:18 | 2:19 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 | 2:17 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30:58 | 1:43 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:48 | 0:03 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 64:53 | OT loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:58 | 2:44 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 2:50 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:42 | 2:39 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:14 | 2:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:33 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:46 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:04 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:39 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:04 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:41 | 2:40 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:38 | 0:49 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:34 | 0:50 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Dineen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:03 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 64:44 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, EDM 3.6 | MTL 2, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.5, EDM 31.9 | MTL 27, EDM 32 |
| Win chance | EDM 62% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 3 | 1.70 | 2 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.1 | 4 | 1.46 | 2 | 47% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 6 | 0.79 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dineen | 1.4 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.