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Game Recap
MTL5
FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night
EDM6

EDM beat MTL 6-5, with the chances close: 4.01 expected goals to 4.40. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Suzuki had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Pickard stopped 22 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL1315
EDM1236
  1. 1st 7:28MTLA. Newhook0.44 xG
  2. 1st 16:12EDMD. Tomasek0.04 xG
  3. 2nd 10:37EDMA. Henrique0.05 xG
  4. 2nd 13:28EDMA. Mangiapane0.52 xG
  5. 2nd 16:57MTLJ. Anderson0.31 xG
  6. 2nd 18:00MTLC. Caufield0.06 xG
  7. 2nd 18:49MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
  8. 3rd 2:10MTLA. Newhook0.23 xG
  9. 3rd 11:19EDML. DraisaitlPP0.21 xG
  10. 3rd 12:17EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.16 xG
  11. 3rd 18:51EDMV. Podkolzin0.16 xG

Team Stats

MTLEDM
27Shots on goal29
4.40Expected goals4.01
62Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal22
0/1Power play2/5
15Hits15
16Blocked shots19
20Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways11
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.40 xGEDM 4.01 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdMTL goal, 7:28EDM goal, 16:12EDM goal, 10:37EDM goal, 13:28MTL goal, 16:57MTL goal, 18:00MTL goal, 18:49MTL goal, 2:10EDM goal, 11:19EDM goal, 12:17EDM goal, 18:51

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 5 scored
EDM28 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW202500+1018:531:21
A. NewhookC202320+1013:320:30
O. KapanenC022000+1013:100:00
N. SuzukiC011611+1019:371:34
J. EvansC011112+1018:290:00
J. AndersonRW10110001216:220:00
B. GallagherRW011120+1013:360:39
J. SlafkovskýLW000103+1218:471:30
I. DemidovRW000100+1012:061:31
K. DachC000001-2010:280:26
Z. BolducRW000021-1010:110:29
J. VelenoC000010-209:310:00
L. HutsonD0223020021:021:21
N. DobsonD011013+1025:160:39
A. CarrierD0112130223:030:00
J. StrubleD011030+1014:480:00
M. MathesonD000210+1425:110:00
A. XhekajD000100-108:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault29236.79359:33Loss
J. Dobes000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC0333000022:356:50
R. Nugent-HopkinsC112110-1019:376:52
V. PodkolzinRW1121200013:260:00
L. DraisaitlC1014000022:236:51
D. TomasekRW101120+1014:546:52
A. MangiapaneLW1012110013:500:00
A. HenriqueC101402-1012:510:45
N. PhilpC0110000012:250:00
M. SavoieC000001-1015:430:44
J. RoslovicC000300-1015:120:00
T. FredericC0001300010:550:00
I. HowardLW0001000010:540:44
J. WalmanD022103+2019:510:49
D. NurseD0221120019:360:00
E. BouchardD011213-2221:476:47
M. EkholmD011103-2017:560:46
B. KulakD000203-1017:210:00
T. EmbersonD000141+1016:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard27225.81560:00Win
S. Skinner000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield17:05J. Slafkovský16:50N. Suzuki16:41
Line 2B. Gallagher12:57J. Evans13:08J. Anderson11:53
Line 3A. Newhook10:46I. Demidov10:08O. Kapanen11:00
Line 4J. Veleno9:31K. Dach10:02Z. Bolduc9:42
Pair 1M. Matheson20:13N. Dobson18:34
Pair 2J. Struble14:48L. Hutson19:03
Pair 3A. Carrier18:50A. Xhekaj8:34

EDM

Line 1M. Savoie14:29L. Draisaitl14:19C. McDavid14:30
Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins11:37J. Roslovic15:12A. Mangiapane13:07
Line 3T. Frederic10:55N. Philp12:25V. Podkolzin13:26
Line 4A. Henrique11:36I. Howard10:10D. Tomasek8:02
Pair 1J. Walman18:14D. Nurse18:48
Pair 2B. Kulak16:39T. Emberson15:31
Pair 3M. Ekholm16:12E. Bouchard14:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownKirby Dach MTL Plays near home (born in Fort Saskatchewan)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 2.7, EDM 3.6MTL 5, EDM 6
Total goals6.311
Shots on goalMTL 23.7, EDM 31.7MTL 27, EDM 29
Win chanceEDM 65%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.431.82343%0
EDM E. Bouchard3.120.99120%0
EDM L. Draisaitl3.141.57150%1
MTL C. Caufield2.850.71230%2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.110.86227%1
EDM D. Nurse2.110.3929%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.060.87126%0
EDM J. Walman2.010.43211%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.910.46110%0
MTL J. Slafkovský1.910.57020%0
MTL N. Dobson1.800.46110%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.730.52020%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.710.41116%0
EDM D. Tomasek1.710.40114%1
MTL Z. Bolduc1.600.44019%0
MTL M. Matheson1.520.3409%0
EDM M. Savoie1.500.25012%0
MTL J. Anderson1.410.28115%1
EDM N. Philp1.300.28113%0
MTL A. Newhook1.330.35215%2
EDM A. Mangiapane1.320.44121%1
EDM B. Kulak1.320.2906%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.310.36214%1
MTL K. Dach1.300.36013%0
EDM A. Henrique1.340.39120%1
EDM T. Frederic1.210.31016%0
EDM I. Howard1.210.25013%0
MTL J. Evans1.010.35111%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.000.24212%0
MTL I. Demidov1.010.47012%0
MTL L. Hutson1.030.6026%0
MTL J. Veleno0.900.2009%0
EDM T. Emberson0.810.2003%0
MTL A. Carrier0.820.2214%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.710.0903%0
MTL J. Struble0.600.1513%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.