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Game Recap
MTL3
FLA2
MTL beat FLA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.74 expected goals to 2.98. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Suzuki had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Montembeault stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 3rd 10:18FLAB. MarchandPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:01FLAS. Reinhart0.01 xG
- 3rd 15:33MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:38MTLN. Suzuki0.07 xG
- OT 3:24MTLN. SuzukiPP0.26 xG
Team Stats
MTLFLA
29Shots on goal30
3.74Expected goals2.98
62Shot attempts58
215v5 shots on goal18
1/4Power play1/4
16Hits30
18Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways8
7Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.74 xGFLA 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:33 | 5:48 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 5:38 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 5:47 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:53 | 5:49 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:54 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:04 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:46 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:04 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 1:57 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 2:07 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 24:32 | 2:28 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:29 | 4:04 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:14 | 0:18 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:04 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 62:41 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 5:18 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 1:43 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:59 | 4:42 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:09 | 5:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:05 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:39 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:44 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 1:03 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:03 | 5:07 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:03 | 1:16 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:18 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 63:19 | OT loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki14:49C. Caufield13:17A. Texier14:44
Line 2O. Kapanen13:24I. Demidov12:01J. Slafkovský12:36
Line 3P. Danault12:54J. Anderson11:06Z. Bolduc9:24
Line 4B. Gallagher9:36J. Veleno8:08S. Blais8:09
Pair 1M. Matheson19:45N. Dobson18:31
Pair 2A. Carrier17:40L. Hutson17:03
Pair 3A. Xhekaj9:34A. Engstrom11:24
FLA
Line 1A. Lundell15:00E. Luostarinen14:34S. Reinhart15:07
Line 2C. Verhaeghe13:55S. Bennett12:46B. Marchand11:22
Line 3A. Greer13:26M. Samoskevich11:48E. Rodrigues11:44
Line 4L. Kunin8:36J. Boqvist6:14J. Studnicka6:05
Pair 1A. Ekblad18:09G. Forsling17:11
Pair 2S. Jones16:22N. Mikkola17:43
Pair 3J. Petry10:48U. Balinskis13:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, FLA 3.1 | MTL 3, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.5, FLA 28.4 | MTL 29, FLA 30 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 5 | 1.08 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.7 | 4 | 1.03 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 5 | 0.76 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.64 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 7 | 0.89 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.90 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Engstrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.