Game Recap: MTL 3, LAK 6, February 5, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalWed, Feb 5, 2025Every game that night

LAK6

LAK beat MTL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 1.40. LAK outshot MTL 37 to 21. Q. Byfield led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Edmundson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Kuemper stopped 18 of 21.

Team Stats

MTLLAK

21Shots on goal37

1.40Expected goals4.00

43Shot attempts72

195v5 shots on goal29

0/3Power play0/2

22Hits11

17Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways12

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 1.40 xGLAK 4.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 3 scored

LAK34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:56	2:43
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	0	16:22	3:16
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:35	3:14
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:59	3:15
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:39	2:42
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:13	2:40
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:02	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:16	2:52
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	14:14	0:02
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:50	0:02
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:02
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	11:33	3:00
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	23:27	3:20
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-2	2	22:50	0:12
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	-1	0	19:33	2:38
L. Mailloux	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:19	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	19:06	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	16:40	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	36	31	5	.861	59:38	Loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	3	3	3	0	1	+3	0	19:15	2:12
K. Fiala	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	19:06	2:50
W. Foegele	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	15:05	1:10
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	16:53	1:43
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	16:15	2:16
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	5	2	2	+3	0	15:49	1:38
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	10:41	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	17:08	2:18
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	16:26	1:42
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:22	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:18	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:47	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	2	24:08	0:06
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:29	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	25:16	1:47
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	23:09	0:05
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:00	2:13
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	21	18	3	.857	59:40	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Armia LAK Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20253 SOG
Old teamPhillip Danault MTL Faces LAK, his team until Dec 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.4, LAK 3.1	MTL 3, LAK 6
Total goals	5.4	9
Shots on goal	MTL 23.6, LAK 29.6	MTL 21, LAK 37
Win chance	LAK 63%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.4	0	1.01	0	40%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	4	0.89	2	33%	2
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.66	1	29%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.6	4	0.59	2	25%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	5	0.56	1	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.4	5	0.63	1	25%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.70	3	23%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.1	0	0.56	0	23%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	2	0.73	0	23%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	3	0.48	1	9%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.8	0	0.64	0	22%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	0	0.33	0	15%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.7	3	0.69	0	14%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	1	0.89	1	27%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	3	0.42	1	6%	1
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.6	2	0.40	2	7%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	3	0.51	0	17%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	3	0.33	0	15%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	1	0.43	0	6%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.36	1	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	0	0.33	1	13%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	1	0.26	0	14%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.3	4	0.26	0	6%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	2	0.37	1	14%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
MTL L. Mailloux	1.1	1	0.31	1	5%	1
LAK T. Lewis	1.1	0	0.20	0	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	0	0.53	1	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	2	0.26	1	4%	1
LAK A. Thomas	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.24	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	1	0.34	0	11%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.