Game Recap: MTL 4, LAK 3, March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

LAK3

MTL beat LAK 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.52 expected goals to 4.20. LAK outshot MTL 39 to 23. J. Slafkovský led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Dobes stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	2	2	4
LAK	1	1	1	3

1st 14:12LAKA. Kopitar0.08 xG
2nd 3:09MTLJ. Evans0.03 xG
2nd 15:41MTLJ. Slafkovský0.19 xG
2nd 17:31LAKS. Laughton0.10 xG
3rd 6:44LAKA. Laferriere0.12 xG
3rd 14:38MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.11 xG
3rd 15:27MTLN. Suzuki0.10 xG

Team Stats

MTLLAK

23Shots on goal39

2.52Expected goals4.20

43Shot attempts86

225v5 shots on goal29

1/1Power play0/3

21Hits32

16Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways13

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.52 xGLAK 4.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 4 scored

LAK39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	2	17:14	0:31
J. Slafkovský	LW	2	1	3	4	0	1	+1	0	16:38	0:31
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:03	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:48	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:31
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	18:34	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	13:53	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:18	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:30	0:31
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:51	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	21:55	0:31
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	18:31	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	24:26	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	24:25	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:31	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	2	9:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	39	36	3	.923	60:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+2	0	23:46	4:20
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	22:53	4:13
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	22:10	4:17
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	5	3	1	0	0	20:48	3:19
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	18:05	1:45
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	15:08	1:28
J. Wright	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:44	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:26	2:45
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:56	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	8:04	1:16
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	-1	0	7:08	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	6:42	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	2	2	3	0	3	+2	0	24:38	3:56
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	23:04	2:04
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	7	4	-2	0	19:50	0:22
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	18:00	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:31	0:15
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	23	19	4	.826	58:37	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský15:43N. Suzuki16:11C. Caufield12:38

Line 2K. Dach13:48Z. Bolduc13:39J. Evans13:47

Line 3O. Kapanen14:35A. Newhook13:18I. Demidov10:59

Line 4P. Danault10:56J. Anderson10:24B. Gallagher9:51

Pair 1M. Matheson19:57K. Guhle20:40

Pair 2N. Dobson19:03L. Hutson20:56

Pair 3A. Carrier14:55A. Xhekaj9:10

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar17:17A. Panarin18:03A. Kempe16:30

Line 2A. Laferriere16:49T. Moore16:20Q. Byfield16:47

Line 3S. Laughton12:26A. Turcotte10:56J. Wright10:44

Line 4S. Helenius7:08T. Ward6:48J. Malott6:42

Pair 1D. Doughty20:29M. Anderson18:57

Pair 2B. Clarke19:19J. Edmundson18:00

Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:16C. Ceci12:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPhillip Danault MTL Faces LAK, his team until Dec 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, LAK 3.3	MTL 4, LAK 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.7, LAK 28.1	MTL 23, LAK 39
Win chance	LAK 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.2	5	1.38	1	39%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	3	1.07	1	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	2	0.79	1	32%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	5	0.60	1	25%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.2	2	0.56	1	24%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.1	3	0.61	2	12%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	2	0.69	0	24%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	5	0.88	3	25%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	4	0.66	3	21%	2
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	1	0.49	0	10%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	1	0.31	0	13%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	0	0.69	0	17%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.5	2	0.32	0	14%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	1	0.39	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.50	0	12%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	2	0.35	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	4	0.83	1	25%	1
MTL K. Dach	1.3	1	0.36	1	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	2	0.78	1	9%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	0	0.33	0	11%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.36	1	15%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.37	1	16%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.2	0	0.37	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	3	0.27	0	14%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.0	2	0.23	0	8%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.35	1	12%	1
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.26	0	6%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	2	0.23	0	12%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	2	0.24	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.22	1	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.06	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.