MIN beat MTL 3-0, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 1.80. MIN outshot MTL 28 to 19. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Boldy had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 19 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 12:43MINM. Boldy0.15 xG
- 3rd 12:19MINM. RossiPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:40MINK. KaprizovEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.80 xGMIN 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 4:17 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 3:52 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 4:09 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 4:07 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:49 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 2:02 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:06 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:02 | 1:48 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:06 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 1:22 |
| L. Condotta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:19 | 4:12 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:17 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:16 | 1:47 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:06 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 58:21 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:53 | 3:25 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:04 | 3:28 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:36 | 2:32 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 3:35 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:13 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:52 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:04 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:42 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:01 | 0:17 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 2:28 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:45 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:19 | 3:24 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:49 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.7, MIN 3.7 | MTL 0, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.9, MIN 32.3 | MTL 19, MIN 28 |
| Win chance | MIN 65% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.7 | 4 | 1.50 | 2 | 49% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 6 | 1.01 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL L. Condotta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.