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Game Recap
MTL3
MIN4
MIN beat MTL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 1.83. Q. Hughes led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). Q. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. F. Gustavsson stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:38MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.03 xG
- 1st 15:48MINK. Kaprizov0.09 xG
- 1st 19:08MTLB. Gallagher0.25 xG
- 2nd 19:43MTLI. Demidov0.15 xG
- 3rd 0:12MTLK. Dach0.15 xG
- 3rd 7:05MINB. Faber0.13 xG
- OT 3:38MINK. KaprizovPP0.14 xG
Team Stats
MTLMIN
20Shots on goal24
1.83Expected goals3.29
45Shot attempts65
175v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play1/3
16Hits18
13Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways13
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.83 xGMIN 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:29 |
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:29 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:28 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:34 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:26 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:26 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:23 | 0:32 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:34 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 25:55 | 1:37 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 25:41 | 0:02 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:10 | 0:23 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 62:52 | OT loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:50 | 3:35 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 3:23 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:41 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:33 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:28 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:35 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:30 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33:19 | 4:12 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 28:21 | 0:52 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:27 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 63:38 | Win |
| C. Petersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1C. Caufield16:07N. Suzuki16:23K. Dach15:48
Line 2J. Slafkovský15:12O. Kapanen12:49I. Demidov11:21
Line 3P. Danault13:36J. Anderson11:45B. Gallagher12:29
Pair 2M. Matheson21:29K. Guhle18:30
Pair 3A. Carrier16:40A. Xhekaj5:51
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello15:42K. Kaprizov18:43R. Hartman16:21
Line 2D. Yurov14:41Y. Trenin14:28V. Tarasenko13:26
Line 3J. Ek14:36M. Boldy14:43M. Johansson13:04
Line 4T. Pitlick8:00N. Sturm7:38V. Hinostroza8:09
Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:30J. Middleton19:41
Pair 3Z. Bogosian15:32D. Hunt1:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.2, MIN 3.4 | MTL 3, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.9, MIN 28.7 | MTL 20, MIN 24 |
| Win chance | MIN 54% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 4 | 1.30 | 2 | 46% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 2 | 1.02 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.7 | 6 | 1.15 | 3 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 0 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.2 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.