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Game Recap
MTL2
NSH1
MTL beat NSH 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.97 expected goals to 3.25. NSH outshot MTL 37 to 17. R. O'Reilly had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Dobes stopped 36 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:19NSHS. Stamkos0.14 xG
- 2nd 1:40MTLC. Caufield0.09 xG
- 2nd 5:47MTLP. Laine0.15 xG
Team Stats
MTLNSH
17Shots on goal37
1.97Expected goals3.25
35Shot attempts83
165v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/4
16Hits19
24Blocked shots10
15Penalty minutes9
17Giveaways13
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.97 xGNSH 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:17 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 1:42 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 1:56 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:04 | 2:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:04 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4:39 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:43 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:46 | 0:18 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25:56 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 37 | 36 | 1 | .973 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:26 | 5:42 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 5:41 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:01 | 5:18 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:18 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:20 | 5:35 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:10 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:05 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 2:10 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 2:18 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 1:39 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:24 | 4:25 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:59 | 3:25 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 1:04 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:10 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 17 | 15 | 2 | .882 | 57:30 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, NSH 3.3 | MTL 2, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.1, NSH 30.3 | MTL 17, NSH 37 |
| Win chance | NSH 58% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 0 | 0.96 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 5 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.7 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.79 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.