Game Recap: MTL 4, NSH 1, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

NSH1

MTL beat NSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.08 expected goals to 2.20. MTL outshot NSH 32 to 24. A. Newhook led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Fowler stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	3	0	4
NSH	0	0	1	1

1st 11:34MTLI. Demidov0.05 xG
2nd 3:12MTLO. Kapanen0.21 xG
2nd 14:45MTLC. Caufield0.11 xG
2nd 16:23MTLA. Newhook0.13 xG
3rd 16:26NSHZ. L'Heureux0.20 xG

Team Stats

MTLNSH

32Shots on goal24

4.08Expected goals2.20

56Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/3

20Hits25

16Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes16

19Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.08 xGNSH 2.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL31 on goal, 4 scored

NSH24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	18:53	2:35
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+3	0	16:11	2:36
O. Kapanen	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	16:05	1:15
A. Newhook	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+3	0	15:11	1:13
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	16:28	2:35
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	16:45	2:37
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:18	0:05
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:47	1:19
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	13:44	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:15	1:15
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	4	12:59	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:53	0:05
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+2	0	21:19	2:42
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	21:34	1:13
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	20:47	0:05
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:15	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	2	17:23	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:40	2:10
Z. L'Heureux	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	12	13:45	2:18
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	19:26	2:09
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:11	0:08
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:24	3:37
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:41	3:16
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:07	3:41
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:35	3:45
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	16:23	2:28
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:16	0:11
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:09	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	10:15	2:19
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:30	3:40
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:02	0:17
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	20:00	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:31	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	14:10	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:00	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	28	4	.875	60:00	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský14:01N. Suzuki13:35C. Caufield12:55

Line 2I. Demidov12:40A. Newhook12:34O. Kapanen12:16

Line 3B. Gallagher12:00P. Danault13:06J. Veleno10:42

Line 4J. Evans11:51Z. Bolduc13:28J. Anderson4:48

Pair 1M. Matheson15:46N. Dobson16:55

Pair 2J. Struble16:06L. Hutson17:30

Pair 3A. Carrier15:03K. Guhle15:09

NSH

Line 1T. Jost16:30E. Haula11:31L. Evangelista17:17

Line 2S. Stamkos12:07R. O'Reilly12:00Z. L'Heureux10:47

Line 3F. Svechkov12:56R. Schaefer11:32F. Forsberg13:37

Line 4M. Wood12:22J. Marchessault13:26

Pair 1R. Josi17:59B. Skjei16:36

Pair 2N. Hague17:59J. Barron13:19

Pair 3R. Ufko7:48N. Perbix10:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.3, NSH 3.0	MTL 4, NSH 1
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	MTL 27.8, NSH 28.0	MTL 32, NSH 24
Win chance	MTL 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	4	0.90	1	35%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	3	0.97	0	37%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.7	1	0.82	0	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	1	0.82	0	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	1	0.73	0	29%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	4	0.80	0	26%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	4	1.02	2	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	2	0.61	0	13%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	4	0.59	0	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.86	0	28%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.6	2	0.32	0	13%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	2	0.74	2	19%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	2	0.43	0	11%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	0	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.44	1	21%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	3	0.42	2	19%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	0	0.43	0	9%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.4	3	0.31	0	12%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	3	0.86	1	11%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.33	0	16%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	2	0.26	1	12%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	3	0.41	2	17%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.3	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.36	0	12%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.31	0	8%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.22	0	3%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	2	0.22	0	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.27	0	10%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.22	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	0	0.32	1	7%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.