Game Recap: MTL 3, NYI 4 (SO), October 19, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL3

Final/SOSat, Oct 19, 2024Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat MTL 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.52 expected goals to 2.51. NYI outshot MTL 36 to 24. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Dobson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Varlamov stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MTL	1	1	1	0	3
NYI	2	0	1	1	4

1st 14:32NYIB. HorvatPP0.19 xG
1st 16:58NYIK. Palmieri0.11 xG
1st 19:56MTLC. CaufieldPP0.07 xG
2nd 0:59MTLL. Mailloux0.12 xG
3rd 15:24NYIA. Lee0.35 xG
3rd 17:50MTLC. Caufield0.02 xG

Team Stats

MTLNYI

24Shots on goal36

2.51Expected goals4.52

46Shot attempts81

185v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play1/6

30Hits28

25Blocked shots8

12Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.51 xGNYI 4.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 3 scored

NYI35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	2	1	4	2	0	0	15:57	0:05
C. Caufield	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	14:36	0:05
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	19:14	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:51	0:05
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	15:45	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:36	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	16:00	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	4	13:47	0:05
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	12:50	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:14	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:32	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:36	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	1	2	5	0	0	28:10	0:05
L. Mailloux	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	2	19:03	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	2	24:10	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	22:21	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	20:35	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	36	33	3	.917	65:00	OT loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	26:29	8:35
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	25:47	7:51
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:17	6:35
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	5	7	1	+1	0	18:25	4:17
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	2	17:41	4:03
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	16:41	3:23
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:08	6:03
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:07	2:34
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:57	1:14
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:13	0:00
J. Gauthier	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	7	1	2	+2	0	29:24	7:51
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	17:39	0:05
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	21:12	0:12
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	18:57	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:14	3:52
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	24	21	3	.875	64:16	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoah Dobson MTL First game back in New York, his team until Apr 20252 A, 7 SOG
Old teamEmil Heineman NYI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, NYI 3.6	MTL 3, NYI 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	MTL 27.9, NYI 34.3	MTL 24, NYI 36
Win chance	NYI 63%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.6	3	0.76	2	32%	2
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	3	0.84	1	36%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	3.0	3	0.76	1	31%	1
NYI B. Nelson	3.0	4	0.99	0	40%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	2	1.05	1	28%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	5	0.55	1	26%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.80	1	26%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	7	0.80	2	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	1	0.61	2	21%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.9	3	0.35	0	17%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.8	1	0.68	0	29%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.8	1	0.33	0	6%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	1	0.58	1	10%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	2	0.44	0	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	0	0.30	1	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.6	2	0.46	0	15%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.5	1	0.33	0	6%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	1	0.40	1	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	2	0.47	1	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.45	0	17%	0
NYI J. Gauthier	1.2	0	0.29	0	15%	0
MTL J. Barron	1.2	1	0.27	0	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.54	0	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	2	0.31	0	13%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	3	0.35	1	11%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	0	0.35	0	18%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.