Game Recap: MTL 3, NYI 4 (OT), March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL3

Final/OTThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat MTL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.26 expected goals to 4.04. MTL outshot NYI 41 to 25. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). H. Fasching had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. I. Sorokin stopped 38 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	0	2	0	3
NYI	1	1	1	1	4

1st 5:37NYIA. DuclairPP0.23 xG
1st 11:58MTLJ. Roy0.39 xG
2nd 16:40NYIS. HolmstromPP0.09 xG
3rd 2:31NYIB. Horvat0.21 xG
3rd 4:32MTLP. LainePP0.12 xG
3rd 14:16MTLB. Gallagher0.27 xG
OT 3:37NYIB. Horvat0.10 xG

Team Stats

MTLNYI

41Shots on goal25

4.04Expected goals3.26

72Shot attempts67

285v5 shots on goal20

1/5Power play2/3

21Hits19

28Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways16

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.04 xGNYI 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL38 on goal, 3 scored

NYI25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Laine	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	-1	0	15:52	5:27
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	24:03	7:12
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	4	14:26	1:58
J. Roy	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	10:09	0:08
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	21:52	5:31
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	5	4	1	0	0	19:56	5:34
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	15:12	0:08
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:08	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	14:34	1:54
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	14:26	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:26	0:08
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:29	1:51
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	15:31	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	5	0	4	-1	2	26:32	2:15
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	25:13	5:24
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:13	0:15
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	15:10	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	25	21	4	.840	63:37	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	2	0	2	5	3	0	+2	0	21:38	3:01
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:24	2:55
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:34	1:27
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	2	14:07	1:23
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	13:11	1:27
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	20:58	2:56
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:47	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	12:54	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	10:10	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:54	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:24	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	2	2	4	1	2	+1	0	26:14	3:05
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	2	0	6	-1	2	22:50	2:53
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	26:05	1:18
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	25:31	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:51	1:30
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	41	38	3	.927	63:37	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoah Dobson MTL First game back in New York, his team until Apr 20252 A, 2 SOG
Old teamEmil Heineman NYI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, NYI 3.3	MTL 3, NYI 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	MTL 26.4, NYI 30.7	MTL 41, NYI 25
Win chance	NYI 57%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	5	0.82	2	36%	2
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.78	0	32%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	2	0.67	2	13%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	1	0.76	0	31%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	1	0.59	1	27%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	4	0.62	2	12%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	5	0.58	0	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	0.88	1	26%	0
MTL P. Laine	1.9	4	0.59	2	24%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	5	0.62	0	21%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	5	0.39	1	17%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.37	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	1	0.51	1	24%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	0	0.56	1	19%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	1	0.63	1	27%	1
NYI M. Reilly	1.5	1	0.26	0	6%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	0	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	1	0.29	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	4	0.38	0	16%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.2	2	0.27	1	12%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	1	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	1	0.33	0	5%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.1	1	0.37	0	12%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	2	0.70	0	6%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	1	0.14	0	4%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.9	5	0.27	0	12%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	1	0.22	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	3	0.38	0	12%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.8	0	0.24	0	13%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	0	0.25	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.