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Game Recap
MTL3
NYR4
NYR beat MTL 4-3, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.95. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Quick stopped 25 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NYR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:02NYRA. PanarinPP0.05 xG
- 1st 11:47MTLM. Matheson0.13 xG
- 1st 19:56NYRV. Trocheck0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:03NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:16MTLC. Caufield0.07 xG
- 3rd 14:07MTLN. Suzuki0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:36NYRK. KakkoPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
MTLNYR
28Shots on goal28
2.95Expected goals2.56
56Shot attempts63
245v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play3/6
23Hits22
18Blocked shots10
23Penalty minutes15
11Giveaways10
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.95 xGNYR 2.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:52 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 3:44 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 14:28 | 3:51 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 2:11 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:07 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:03 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:12 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:40 | 3:48 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12:38 | 0:02 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:58 | 2:02 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 26:07 | 2:11 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:50 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:07 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 59:39 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 5:50 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:52 | 3:57 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:45 | 6:21 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:07 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:28 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:03 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:22 | 5:54 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:10 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:06 | 0:08 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:05 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:07 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:21 | 5:51 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:13 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:10 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:01 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, NYR 3.5 | MTL 3, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.7, NYR 31.3 | MTL 28, NYR 28 |
| Win chance | NYR 61% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 5 | 1.28 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.8 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 3 | 0.95 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.