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Game Recap
MTL4
Final/OTSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night
NYR5

NYR beat MTL 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.76 expected goals to 2.75. NYR outshot MTL 29 to 18. J. Miller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Panarin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. I. Shesterkin stopped 14 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
MTL31004
NYR22015
  1. 1st 12:41MTLZ. Bolduc0.20 xG
  2. 1st 14:10MTLA. Xhekaj0.03 xG
  3. 1st 16:18MTLJ. Evans0.13 xG
  4. 1st 18:49NYRN. LabaPP0.24 xG
  5. 1st 19:08NYRA. Panarin0.35 xG
  6. 2nd 3:17MTLJ. Anderson0.22 xG
  7. 2nd 7:22NYRW. Cuylle0.05 xG
  8. 2nd 7:58NYRJ. Miller0.33 xG
  9. OT 2:56NYRJ. MillerPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

MTLNYR
18Shots on goal29
2.75Expected goals4.76
55Shot attempts76
165v5 shots on goal18
0/1Power play2/2
21Hits32
23Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways13
7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.75 xGNYR 4.76 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTMTL goal, 12:41MTL goal, 14:10MTL goal, 16:18NYR goal, 18:49NYR goal, 19:08MTL goal, 3:17NYR goal, 7:22NYR goal, 7:58NYR goal, 2:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL17 on goal, 4 scored
NYR28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC022110+1024:331:36
C. CaufieldRW011120+1019:261:15
Z. BolducRW1014320017:140:07
J. VelenoC0111140015:510:00
J. EvansC101231+1213:540:00
A. TexierLW011010+1012:530:24
J. AndersonRW101101+2011:490:00
J. SlafkovskýLW0000210015:431:36
I. DemidovRW000000-1015:181:36
O. KapanenC000303-1015:120:24
B. GallagherRW000111+1012:010:45
O. BeckC000122+129:090:00
L. HutsonD022000+1226:581:21
A. CarrierD011102+1022:200:00
A. XhekajD101131+1010:130:00
M. MathesonD0000000027:230:17
N. DobsonD000105+1023:450:39
A. EngstromD0000200011:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler29245.82862:56OT loss
S. Montembeault000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. MillerC2023300020:541:38
C. ShearyLW0220110016:370:39
W. CuylleLW112132-1015:030:39
N. LabaC112251-1013:360:39
V. TrocheckC0110600022:431:38
A. PanarinLW1018110022:221:38
M. ZibanejadC011232-1019:251:38
A. LafrenièreLW000210-1019:381:11
B. BerardLW000000-1011:210:00
S. CarrickC000113009:020:00
T. RaddyshRW000020008:260:39
J. ChmelarRW000011007:430:00
M. RobertsonD022320+1020:320:00
V. GavrikovD000201-2227:560:39
B. SchneiderD000411-1023:400:00
W. BorgenD000111+1219:120:00
C. SoucyD000012-1016:230:00
U. VaakanainenD000002-2011:330:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin18144.77862:05Win
J. Quick000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki20:13Z. Bolduc17:07C. Caufield16:21
Line 2J. Slafkovský13:49I. Demidov12:20O. Kapanen12:32
Line 3J. Evans11:49J. Veleno14:50B. Gallagher11:16
Line 4J. Anderson11:00A. Texier11:25O. Beck9:09
Pair 1N. Dobson21:11L. Hutson23:27
Pair 2M. Matheson22:22A. Carrier20:13
Pair 3A. Xhekaj9:50A. Engstrom11:16

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck18:06J. Miller16:43C. Sheary15:58
Line 2A. Panarin17:42A. Lafrenière17:26M. Zibanejad15:12
Line 3W. Cuylle13:16N. Laba12:25B. Berard11:13
Line 4T. Raddysh7:47J. Chmelar7:43S. Carrick8:18
Pair 1V. Gavrikov25:15B. Schneider21:08
Pair 2W. Borgen18:18M. Robertson17:26
Pair 3C. Soucy15:02U. Vaakanainen11:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 2.7, NYR 3.1MTL 4, NYR 5
Total goals5.89
Shots on goalMTL 25.8, NYR 27.1MTL 18, NYR 29
Win chanceNYR 56%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield3.110.81132%0
NYR A. Panarin2.981.26137%1
NYR M. Zibanejad2.720.92130%0
NYR V. Trocheck2.400.95130%0
NYR J. Miller2.331.13233%2
MTL N. Suzuki2.210.89226%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.110.60224%1
MTL N. Dobson2.110.51010%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.000.58021%0
NYR A. Lafrenière1.920.62024%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.830.48020%0
MTL M. Matheson1.600.4108%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.640.43119%1
NYR C. Sheary1.600.41215%0
NYR B. Berard1.600.26014%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.510.34014%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.520.44010%0
MTL L. Hutson1.400.6827%0
MTL J. Anderson1.410.29115%1
MTL A. Texier1.400.35114%0
MTL I. Demidov1.300.62015%0
NYR B. Schneider1.340.3108%0
NYR N. Laba1.220.31215%1
NYR W. Borgen1.110.2607%0
NYR C. Soucy1.100.2408%0
NYR M. Robertson1.030.1725%0
MTL J. Veleno1.010.20110%0
MTL J. Evans1.020.33111%1
MTL A. Carrier0.910.2614%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.910.1013%1
NYR T. Raddysh0.900.23010%0
MTL O. Beck0.810.1207%0
NYR S. Carrick0.810.1808%0
NYR U. Vaakanainen0.700.2202%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.