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Game Recap
MTL4
SEA5
SEA beat MTL 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.73 expected goals to 2.21. SEA outshot MTL 35 to 25. B. Montour led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Newhook had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Daccord stopped 21 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 4:54SEAB. Montour0.03 xG
- 2nd 4:47SEAE. Tolvanen0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:11MTLP. LainePP0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:21MTLA. Newhook0.23 xG
- 2nd 14:04MTLJ. Slafkovský0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:18MTLJ. Slafkovský0.06 xG
- 3rd 10:53SEAJ. NymanPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 17:48SEAM. BeniersPP0.11 xG
- OT 0:04SEAB. Montour0.08 xG
Team Stats
MTLSEA
25Shots on goal35
2.21Expected goals3.73
50Shot attempts77
185v5 shots on goal29
1/2Power play2/3
23Hits17
17Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways10
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.21 xGSEA 3.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:00 | 2:57 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:08 | 2:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:57 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:57 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:57 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 2:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 27:46 | 0:57 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 60:04 | OT loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 2:04 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:19 | 2:05 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:04 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 2:05 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:43 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:42 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:43 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:42 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:46 | 2:10 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:53 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:48 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, SEA 3.3 | MTL 4, SEA 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.3, SEA 29.0 | MTL 25, SEA 35 |
| Win chance | SEA 58% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 3 | 0.57 | 4 | 15% | 2 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.2 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 4 | 0.62 | 3 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 4 | 0.60 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.80 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.8 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.