Game Recap: MTL 4, SEA 3 (OT), October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL4

Final/OTTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

MTL beat SEA 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 1.84 expected goals to 1.99. C. Caufield led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Dobes stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	2	0	1	1	4
SEA	0	0	3	0	3

1st 10:25MTLC. Caufield0.16 xG
1st 17:28MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.22 xG
3rd 5:55MTLA. NewhookPP0.06 xG
3rd 8:57SEAB. MontourPP0.07 xG
3rd 15:17SEAS. Wright0.16 xG
3rd 18:17SEAB. Montour0.06 xG
OT 0:44MTLC. Caufield0.11 xG

Team Stats

MTLSEA

21Shots on goal21

1.84Expected goals1.99

41Shot attempts48

175v5 shots on goal10

2/2Power play1/4

18Hits22

15Blocked shots9

10Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 1.84 xGSEA 1.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL20 on goal, 4 scored

SEA21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	18:46	1:58
C. Caufield	RW	2	1	3	5	0	1	+2	2	17:21	1:57
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:59	2:00
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	2	14:02	1:00
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:38	0:59
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	17:27	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:16	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	14:22	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:28	0:57
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:00	1:57
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:30	1:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:20	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	0	22:07	0:50
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	22:20	2:07
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	27:05	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	19:34	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:28	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	21	18	3	.857	60:44	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:41	2:16
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	16:13	1:53
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	15:09	2:28
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	14:34	2:24
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:20	1:42
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	21:38	4:35
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	21:38	4:37
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:55	4:31
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:09	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:11	3:28
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:07	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:02	0:00
B. Montour	D	2	1	3	4	2	2	+2	0	25:17	2:11
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	23:16	4:49
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	18:17	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	17:24	0:06
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	15:31	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	21	17	4	.810	59:46	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:38J. Slafkovský14:11C. Caufield13:39

Line 2K. Dach13:02J. Veleno14:19Z. Bolduc12:28

Line 3J. Anderson9:45J. Evans11:02B. Gallagher10:30

Line 4A. Newhook9:56I. Demidov9:49O. Kapanen7:41

Pair 1M. Matheson18:08N. Dobson19:05

Pair 2L. Hutson18:30J. Struble15:25

Pair 3A. Carrier12:06A. Xhekaj11:11

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:39M. Beniers14:41B. Catton13:15

Line 2M. Marchment12:10E. Tolvanen10:19S. Wright14:08

Line 3C. Stephenson11:17R. Winterton12:32J. Schwartz11:46

Line 4T. Kartye9:44B. Meyers8:17J. Nyman8:40

Pair 1B. Montour20:26R. Lindgren16:30

Pair 2A. Larsson15:39V. Dunn16:22

Pair 3J. Oleksiak11:36J. Mahura13:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, SEA 3.2	MTL 4, SEA 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.6, SEA 27.9	MTL 21, SEA 21
Win chance	SEA 53%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.78	3	32%	2
SEA B. Montour	2.7	4	0.55	3	15%	2
SEA V. Dunn	2.3	2	0.72	1	15%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	3	0.59	1	25%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.2	1	0.75	0	26%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	3	0.57	2	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.95	3	28%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	0	0.61	1	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	3	0.63	1	22%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	4	0.63	0	25%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	0	0.45	0	10%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.47	1	23%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	0	0.43	0	17%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	0	0.43	0	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.32	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	0	0.34	0	8%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.57	1	23%	1
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	0	0.38	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	1	0.39	1	17%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.75	0	23%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	0	0.15	0	9%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	1	0.35	1	13%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.77	1	7%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.40	0	13%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.34	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	0	0.32	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.0	1	0.57	0	14%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	0	0.22	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	2	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	0	0.09	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	1	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.