Game Recap: MTL 4, SJS 3, February 4, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MTL4

FinalTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

MTL beat SJS 4-3, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.15. SJS outshot MTL 30 to 20. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Graf had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Montembeault stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	2	2	4
SJS	1	1	1	3

1st 5:52SJSM. CelebriniPP0.12 xG
2nd 0:52MTLC. CaufieldPP0.12 xG
2nd 4:53MTLA. Newhook0.07 xG
2nd 14:51SJSC. Graf0.06 xG
3rd 2:40MTLB. GallagherPP0.20 xG
3rd 10:27SJST. ToffoliPP0.21 xG
3rd 15:56MTLJ. ArmiaSH0.12 xG

Team Stats

MTLSJS

20Shots on goal30

3.27Expected goals3.15

63Shot attempts68

145v5 shots on goal22

2/4Power play2/4

29Hits17

21Blocked shots23

8Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways14

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.27 xGSJS 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL20 on goal, 4 scored

SJS28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Newhook	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	2	12:56	2:02
K. Dach	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	+1	0	12:29	1:43
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:46	3:29
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:12	3:29
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:16	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:58	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	0	12:37	1:55
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	20:00	3:45
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:42	2:01
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:45	3:37
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	9:37	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:42	2:48
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	0	5	+2	0	19:00	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	27:02	2:41
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	17:50	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	16:28	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	2	14:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	30	27	3	.900	59:36	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	-1	2	21:59	4:42
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	18:52	4:37
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	21:12	4:45
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	17:37	1:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	15:53	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:15	4:41
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:20	1:03
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	14:25	1:07
A. Poturalski	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	13:36	1:05
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	4	2	2	0	4	9:18	0:00
C. White	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:34	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:26	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	1	3	6	-1	0	25:34	5:12
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	22:28	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:21	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	17:25	0:33
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:17	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	20	16	4	.800	57:27	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.2, SJS 2.8	MTL 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	MTL 29.2, SJS 28.0	MTL 20, SJS 30
Win chance	MTL 56%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	1	0.91	1	35%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	4	0.90	2	30%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	4	0.74	2	33%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.5	1	0.78	0	30%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.4	1	0.52	1	14%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.3	1	0.72	0	13%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	1.00	1	30%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	3	0.52	0	21%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	5	0.45	1	19%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	1	0.75	1	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	1	0.68	0	21%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	1	0.44	1	19%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	1	0.49	2	20%	1
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.6	4	0.25	0	14%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.6	0	0.56	0	19%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.5	1	0.34	0	18%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.5	1	0.46	2	17%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.4	0	0.45	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	2	0.82	1	7%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.3	0	0.39	1	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.3	1	0.21	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.32	0	7%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.46	1	14%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	0	0.25	1	13%	0
SJS W. Duehr	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0
SJS C. Graf	0.9	5	0.31	1	13%	1
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
SJS C. White	0.6	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.