Game Recap: MTL 5, SJS 7, March 3, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL5

FinalTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night

SJS7

SJS beat MTL 7-5, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.43. MTL outshot SJS 36 to 28. M. Celebrini led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Celebrini had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. Y. Askarov stopped 31 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	3	5
SJS	1	3	3	7

1st 6:18MTLO. Kapanen0.09 xG
1st 15:32SJSC. Graf0.17 xG
2nd 5:09MTLP. Danault0.06 xG
2nd 10:28SJSM. Misa0.15 xG
2nd 18:23SJSM. Celebrini0.07 xG
2nd 18:48SJSA. Wennberg0.07 xG
3rd 3:29SJSW. SmithPP0.19 xG
3rd 5:02MTLI. DemidovPP0.11 xG
3rd 5:20MTLA. Newhook0.15 xG
3rd 10:56MTLA. NewhookPP0.04 xG
3rd 16:34SJSK. SherwoodPP0.28 xG
3rd 19:56SJSA. GaudetteEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

MTLSJS

36Shots on goal28

3.43Expected goals3.49

68Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal17

2/5Power play2/4

20Hits21

18Blocked shots9

10Penalty minutes14

12Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.43 xGSJS 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL35 on goal, 5 scored

SJS27 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Newhook	C	2	0	2	3	1	1	+1	0	15:53	2:05
J. Evans	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	15:36	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-3	2	22:26	5:50
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:31	5:52
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:43	5:41
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	13:46	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	11:17	2:15
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	2	9:55	0:05
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	20:48	5:53
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	14:32	1:57
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	13:10	1:53
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	2	10:04	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	24:18	0:47
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	25:03	6:19
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	20:14	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	20:58	1:48
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-1	0	12:39	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	8:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	27	21	6	.778	58:03	Loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	3	4	7	1	1	0	2	22:49	4:00
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	-1	0	19:37	4:00
K. Sherwood	LW	1	1	2	4	5	0	+1	0	13:46	1:15
C. Graf	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	-1	2	13:11	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	2	18:54	4:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:43	1:16
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:58	1:16
M. Misa	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:37	1:16
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	10:32	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:54	4:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	19:44	3:46
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	2	22:25	0:01
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	2	20:45	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	19:06	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	16:51	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:56	1:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	36	31	5	.861	59:48	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:16C. Caufield11:54K. Dach12:23

Line 2A. Newhook12:06Z. Bolduc11:17J. Evans11:20

Line 3P. Danault9:07J. Anderson8:28B. Gallagher9:02

Line 4J. Slafkovský9:42O. Kapanen8:30I. Demidov7:17

Pair 1M. Matheson17:37K. Guhle16:24

Pair 2N. Dobson15:53L. Hutson16:27

Pair 3A. Carrier8:14J. Struble8:28

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:48W. Smith14:11C. Graf10:54

Line 2A. Wennberg10:24K. Sherwood10:55P. Kurashev10:51

Line 3W. Eklund9:44M. Misa8:58T. Toffoli7:42

Line 4B. Goodrow7:47Z. Ostapchuk7:31A. Gaudette9:42

Pair 1D. Orlov13:32J. Klingberg14:14

Pair 2M. Ferraro14:58S. Mukhamadullin13:39

Pair 3V. Desharnais14:02S. Dickinson12:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.5, SJS 3.1	MTL 5, SJS 7
Total goals	6.6	12
Shots on goal	MTL 27.3, SJS 27.1	MTL 36, SJS 28
Win chance	MTL 56%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	7	1.26	4	35%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	3	0.92	0	37%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.5	4	0.59	2	27%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.4	1	0.87	2	29%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	1	0.68	0	28%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	4	1.04	1	29%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	3	0.75	1	25%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	0	0.63	1	18%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	2	0.61	0	13%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	3	0.39	1	16%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	3	0.48	1	21%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.51	3	11%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	3	0.85	1	20%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.53	0	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.5	1	0.47	1	16%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.98	1	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.4	0	0.44	0	17%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	3	0.52	2	20%	1
SJS M. Misa	1.4	2	0.55	1	17%	1
SJS P. Kurashev	1.4	1	0.48	1	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	3	0.43	2	17%	2
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.41	0	18%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	4	0.36	0	18%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	3	0.63	1	18%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	1	0.34	1	9%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	1	0.43	1	8%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	2	0.30	1	17%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.39	2	14%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	2	0.31	0	7%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.25	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.