Game Recap: MTL 1, STL 6, March 25, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL1

FinalTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

STL6

STL beat MTL 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.37 expected goals to 2.31. STL outshot MTL 37 to 25. R. Thomas led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). Z. Bolduc had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Binnington stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	0	0	1
STL	2	2	2	6

1st 18:07STLJ. Kyrou0.08 xG
1st 18:54MTLN. Suzuki0.08 xG
1st 19:54STLD. Holloway0.08 xG
2nd 3:21STLR. Thomas0.04 xG
2nd 9:09STLA. Texier0.41 xG
3rd 10:12STLP. Broberg0.05 xG
3rd 18:02STLZ. BolducPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

MTLSTL

25Shots on goal37

2.31Expected goals3.37

58Shot attempts58

165v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/3

26Hits25

15Blocked shots13

30Penalty minutes8

5Giveaways5

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.31 xGSTL 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL22 on goal, 1 scored

STL35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:31	3:30
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:17	3:01
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	16:50	0:59
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:24	3:01
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:19	3:01
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:00	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:41	0:59
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14	13:37	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	12:06	0:00
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:57	0:30
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	10:50	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	5	2	-2	0	10:48	0:59
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	23:45	3:01
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-4	0	21:49	0:59
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	21:16	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-4	0	20:02	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:22	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	14	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	32	27	5	.844	50:12	Loss
J. Dobes	5	4	1	.800	9:27

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	3	4	1	1	0	+2	0	16:50	2:24
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	5	2	1	+2	0	17:11	2:09
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+2	0	16:00	2:05
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:11	0:01
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	6	4	0	+1	0	14:28	2:19
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:02	0:29
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	12:49	1:56
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	11:51	2:16
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	17:13	2:10
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	5	3	0	4	16:03	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	12:17	1:50
P. Broberg	D	1	3	4	1	1	2	+4	0	19:09	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	20:40	2:21
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:45	0:17
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+4	0	20:23	2:08
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:45	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	25	24	1	.960	59:55	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZachary Bolduc MTL Faces STL, his team until May 20251 G, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, STL 3.5	MTL 1, STL 6
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.3, STL 28.6	MTL 25, STL 37
Win chance	STL 59%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.77	1	33%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	5	0.83	1	33%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	5	0.77	2	26%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.1	3	0.64	0	26%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.90	1	27%	1
STL R. Thomas	2.0	1	1.01	4	27%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.9	0	0.53	0	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	3	0.62	0	22%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	0	0.40	0	18%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.69	0	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.57	0	9%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	6	0.53	1	22%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.38	4	10%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	3	0.51	1	24%	0
STL A. Texier	1.3	1	0.38	1	16%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.29	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	3	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.3	1	0.30	0	15%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	1	0.30	0	14%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.3	2	0.34	1	12%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	2	0.37	0	14%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.2	1	0.29	0	13%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.50	2	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	0	0.68	1	7%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.31	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.1	1	0.37	0	14%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	0	0.26	1	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	2	0.30	0	15%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	3	0.22	0	7%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	0	0.30	0	14%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	1	0.37	0	12%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	2	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.