Game Recap: MTL 2, STL 0, October 27, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL2

FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

STL0

MTL beat STL 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.09 expected goals to 3.76. STL outshot MTL 46 to 20. M. Matheson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Broberg had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Fowler stopped 46 of 46.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	1	1	2
STL	0	0	0	0

2nd 8:37MTLZ. Bolduc0.04 xG
3rd 2:17MTLF. Xhekaj0.08 xG

Team Stats

MTLSTL

20Shots on goal46

2.09Expected goals3.76

44Shot attempts79

145v5 shots on goal31

0/3Power play0/3

19Hits26

18Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways18

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.09 xGSTL 3.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL19 on goal, 2 scored

STL45 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:11	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:19	2:02
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:58	1:54
F. Xhekaj	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	6:19	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:21	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:47	2:06
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:29	3:55
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	17:06	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:21	3:54
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:56	3:58
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:24	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	12:49	2:05
M. Matheson	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+2	0	23:25	1:47
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	4	22:47	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:04	4:05
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:08	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:35	4:14
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	46	46	0	1.000	59:38	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	3	0	0	-1	0	21:57	3:04
R. Thomas	C	0	4	0	-1	2	20:47	2:58
D. Holloway	LW	5	0	1	0	0	18:24	2:57
M. McTavish	C	5	2	0	0	0	17:57	3:02
C. McMichael	LW	5	3	0	0	0	17:01	3:03
J. Snuggerud	RW	3	0	0	0	0	16:46	2:59
J. Neighbours	LW	5	2	0	0	0	16:41	2:43
J. Berggren	RW	3	1	0	0	2	15:01	2:36
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	3	0	0	2	11:13	0:14
A. Toropchenko	RW	2	2	1	-1	0	10:25	0:00
P. Suter	C	2	1	0	-2	0	10:23	0:00
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	3	1	-1	0	8:58	0:00
P. Broberg	D	6	0	1	-1	0	26:11	3:11
C. Fowler	D	1	0	3	-1	0	23:30	2:49
C. Parayko	D	2	1	2	0	0	21:46	0:11
A. Jiricek	D	2	2	0	-1	0	16:21	0:13
B. Carlo	D	1	1	2	-1	0	15:19	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	1	0	0	0	11:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	20	18	2	.900	54:06	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield12:05J. Slafkovský11:15O. Kapanen9:49

Line 2J. Evans9:21K. Dach13:11F. Xhekaj6:19

Line 3A. Texier10:04Z. Bolduc10:05P. Danault13:46

Line 4J. Anderson10:54A. Newhook9:02C. Kreider9:04

Pair 1M. Matheson14:08K. Guhle17:43

Pair 2L. Hutson16:45N. Dobson11:14

Pair 3A. Carrier13:47A. Engstrom10:08

STL

Line 1R. Thomas12:53D. Holloway12:19J. Snuggerud10:47

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:49J. Neighbours11:14D. Dvorsky10:59

Line 3J. Berggren10:18M. McTavish11:45C. McMichael10:29

Line 4A. Toropchenko7:30P. Suter7:16A. Kaskimaki6:57

Pair 1C. Fowler14:25C. Parayko14:34

Pair 2P. Broberg16:28B. Carlo12:41

Pair 3A. Jiricek14:02J. Barron11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 21 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+125	-150	3	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+110	-120	5	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+120	-145	2	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+115	-140	3	Over
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+130	-160	5	Over
MTL N. Dobson	2.5	+150	-180	2	Under
STL A. Jiricek	1.5	+120	-160	2	Over
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	+115	-125	1	Under
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	+135	-160	1	Under
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+115	-118	5	Over
STL C. Parayko	1.5	+125	-140	2	Over
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	+120	-125	2	Over
STL J. Berggren	1.5	+120	-140	3	Over
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+120	-160	5	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	+105	-115	1	Under
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	+100	-115	2	Over
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under
STL P. Broberg	1.5	-115	-105	6	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	-115	-113	3	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-105	-115	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	+110	-120	1	Under

2 of 35 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
MTL A. Engstrom	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+370	-650	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+135	-190	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
MTL F. Xhekaj	0.5	+1300	-4000	1	Over
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+460	-650	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+255	-320	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1100	-4000	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+320	-320	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+290	-320	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+370	-600	1	Over

2 of 26 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+295	–	1	Over
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+168	-200	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+215	-300	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+144	-165	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+285	-340	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+164	-175	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+176	-190	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+265	-275	2	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+190	-215	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+290	–	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under

3 of 26 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+260	–	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+154	-170	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+165	–	1	Over
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-190	+165	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+170	-225	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+135	-135	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+255	–	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-148	+130	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+205	-250	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-130	+125	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-140	+120	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-170	+135	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+190	-190	2	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+135	-145	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+200	–	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-172	+150	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+168	-210	1	Over

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+190	-250	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+250	-325	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+360	-800	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+260	-295	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+270	-350	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+210	-290	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+340	-400	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+260	-450	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+300	-400	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+310	-650	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+400	-450	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+250	-350	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MTL J. Fowler	24.5	-110	-120	46	Over
STL J. Binnington	23.5	-112	-110	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL A. Carrier	1.5	-180	+130	3	Over
STL C. Parayko	1.5	-155	+110	2	Over
MTL K. Guhle	1.5	-135	-105	2	Over
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-150	+105	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZachary Bolduc MTL Faces STL, his team until May 20251 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, STL 3.2	MTL 2, STL 0
Total goals	6.3	2
Shots on goal	MTL 25.5, STL 27.3	MTL 20, STL 46
Win chance	STL 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	3	0.83	0	34%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.6	5	0.85	0	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	3	0.78	0	27%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.3	5	0.59	0	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.50	0	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	2	0.69	0	24%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	0	1.01	0	28%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.6	5	0.55	0	20%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.6	3	0.62	0	23%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	1	0.83	0	11%	0
STL A. Kaskimaki	1.5	0	0.22	0	10%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	2	0.39	2	9%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.34	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.47	0	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	2	0.32	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	6	0.46	0	10%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	5	0.54	0	22%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.36	0	16%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	1	0.28	0	14%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	3	0.44	0	18%	0
MTL C. Kreider	1.3	1	0.51	0	24%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.3	2	0.20	0	5%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.44	0	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	1	0.41	1	17%	1
MTL A. Texier	1.2	0	0.37	1	15%	0
STL P. Suter	1.2	2	0.36	0	16%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	1	0.36	0	8%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.18	0	4%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.47	0	8%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.38	0	14%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	1.0	0	0.11	0	3%	0
STL J. Barron	1.0	0	0.25	0	7%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	1	0.27	1	11%	0
MTL F. Xhekaj	0.8	2	0.14	1	6%	1
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.27	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.