MTL beat VAN 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.66 expected goals to 3.50. J. Slafkovský led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Newhook had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Montembeault stopped 29 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.66 xGVAN 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:00 | 0:35 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:28 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:37 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:53 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:53 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:35 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:51 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:03 | 0:53 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:35 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:58 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:02 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 3:28 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:25 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:30 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:33 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:04 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:37 |
| F. Hronek | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:50 | 3:07 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 20:31 | 0:04 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:55 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:30 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.7, VAN 3.1 | MTL 4, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.3, VAN 26.5 | MTL 27, VAN 31 |
| Win chance | VAN 56% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 1 | 0.91 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 4 | 0.59 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.