Game Recap: MTL 4, VAN 3, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

VAN3

MTL beat VAN 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.46 expected goals to 2.55. E. Pettersson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. DeBrusk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Dobes stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	1	3	4
VAN	1	1	1	3

1st 4:42VANE. Pettersson0.14 xG
2nd 6:43VANJ. DeBruskPP0.11 xG
2nd 15:03MTLN. SuzukiPP0.15 xG
3rd 1:50MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.23 xG
3rd 8:19MTLM. Matheson0.04 xG
3rd 11:09MTLI. Demidov0.08 xG
3rd 16:13VANC. Garland0.07 xG

Team Stats

MTLVAN

24Shots on goal31

3.46Expected goals2.55

57Shot attempts67

195v5 shots on goal23

2/3Power play1/3

16Hits20

17Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways14

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.46 xGVAN 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 4 scored

VAN30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	1	2	3	1	1	1	0	0	13:47	4:07
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	2	2	1	0	0	19:11	4:11
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:22	4:11
O. Kapanen	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:57	0:31
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:17	3:43
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:50	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:05	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:07	0:31
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	12:53	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:18	0:59
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	11:40	0:31
A. Carrier	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	22:24	0:00
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	27:23	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	23:52	4:11
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-1	0	22:45	0:31
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	6:37	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	2	3	4	1	2	+2	0	21:47	2:53
C. Garland	RW	1	1	2	2	2	1	+2	0	23:13	3:03
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+2	0	20:11	2:52
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:38	3:06
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	-2	2	16:55	0:46
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	15:57	0:44
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:54	0:45
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:01	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:37	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:17	1:01
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6:52	0:06
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	6:38	0:03
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+1	0	26:25	3:09
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	25:33	0:42
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:04	0:03
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:53	0:17
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:37	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	24	20	4	.833	57:13	Loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:54J. Slafkovský14:10C. Caufield13:32

Line 2J. Anderson11:23J. Evans11:58B. Gallagher11:06

Line 3J. Veleno12:01K. Dach10:17Z. Bolduc11:26

Line 4A. Newhook11:46I. Demidov9:40O. Kapanen10:32

Pair 1M. Matheson20:46N. Dobson19:29

Pair 2J. Struble12:45L. Hutson18:43

Pair 3A. Carrier17:34A. Xhekaj6:33

VAN

Line 1E. Kane16:09B. Boeser14:44L. Reichel14:23

Line 2E. Pettersson15:08C. Garland14:11J. DeBrusk13:20

Line 3K. Sherwood12:31D. O'Connor11:31A. Räty11:29

Line 4A. Bains6:35M. Sasson6:46L. Karlsson6:16

Pair 1Q. Hughes19:41F. Hronek19:22

Pair 2T. Myers17:01E. Pettersson12:01

Pair 3M. Pettersson16:48P. Joseph10:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrendan Gallagher VAN First game against MTL since he left (his team until May 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, VAN 3.1	MTL 4, VAN 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	MTL 24.9, VAN 26.2	MTL 24, VAN 31
Win chance	VAN 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	0	0.77	0	31%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	0	1.10	2	16%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	2	0.80	2	28%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.6	4	0.60	0	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	2	0.85	0	35%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	5	0.65	1	29%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.57	0	13%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.92	1	26%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	1	0.62	0	25%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.60	2	21%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	4	0.89	3	30%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	2	0.44	0	17%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	2	0.43	1	11%	1
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	1	0.43	1	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.31	0	16%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	0	0.52	1	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	3	0.32	0	14%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.39	0	16%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	1	0.34	0	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	1	0.36	0	18%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	3	0.36	0	13%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.33	0	16%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.39	0	12%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	0	0.73	1	8%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	3	0.32	1	12%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.0	1	0.48	3	13%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	2	0.29	2	6%	0
VAN L. Reichel	0.9	1	0.28	0	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.32	0	4%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	2	0.16	0	3%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	2	0.21	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	2	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	3	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.