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Game Recap
MTL2
FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night
WPG4

WPG beat MTL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.71. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Laine had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL1012
WPG2114
  1. 1st 7:48MTLL. Hutson0.04 xG
  2. 1st 14:34WPGG. VilardiPP0.22 xG
  3. 1st 16:40WPGA. Lowry0.28 xG
  4. 2nd 6:26WPGK. ConnorPP0.12 xG
  5. 3rd 8:00MTLJ. Anderson0.35 xG
  6. 3rd 19:53WPGV. NamestnikovEN0.17 xG

Team Stats

MTLWPG
28Shots on goal27
2.71Expected goals2.98
56Shot attempts48
195v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play2/6
20Hits11
11Blocked shots15
12Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways12
2Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.71 xGWPG 2.98 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdMTL goal, 7:48WPG goal, 14:34WPG goal, 16:40WPG goal, 6:26MTL goal, 8:00WPG goal, 19:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL28 on goal, 2 scored
WPG26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW011300-1417:284:35
C. DvorakC011411+1214:410:00
J. AndersonRW101151+1213:040:05
B. GallagherRW011001+1212:231:17
J. SlafkovskýLW000210-1016:414:44
N. SuzukiC000210-1016:174:46
P. LaineLW000711-1016:134:41
J. EvansC0000000015:150:00
J. ArmiaRW0002300014:530:00
A. NewhookC0001200014:011:24
K. DachC0000000213:591:35
E. HeinemanLW0000200011:111:22
M. MathesonD0113000026:541:34
L. HutsonD1011000021:584:36
K. GuhleD0001000021:530:11
D. SavardD0000340017:450:00
A. XhekajD0001110015:460:00
J. BarronD000002009:500:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault26233.88559:02Loss
C. Primeau000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW1125000220:366:45
G. VilardiC1122000018:526:48
V. NamestnikovC101321+1015:031:08
A. LowryC1011120014:160:00
A. IafalloLW011001+1213:171:03
N. NiederreiterRW011000-1010:041:13
M. ScheifeleC0002010220:386:50
C. PerfettiC0003100020:046:46
M. BarronC0000000012:230:00
N. ChibrikovRW0002220011:540:00
M. AppletonC000100-1211:430:00
R. KupariC000200009:570:00
J. MorrisseyD022200+2023:366:21
D. DeMeloD011112+1020:370:00
H. FleuryD000024-1019:320:40
N. PionkD000000-1019:051:24
L. StanleyD000020-1016:500:00
C. MillerD0003020013:330:27
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck28262.92960:00Win
E. Comrie000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 2.6, WPG 3.6MTL 2, WPG 4
Total goals6.26
Shots on goalMTL 25.7, WPG 31.4MTL 28, WPG 27
Win chanceWPG 67%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.551.19243%1
MTL C. Caufield3.030.66129%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.321.14039%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.320.88237%1
MTL P. Laine2.370.61024%0
WPG J. Morrissey2.321.01215%0
WPG N. Niederreiter2.100.55126%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.130.70024%0
MTL N. Suzuki1.920.73024%0
MTL M. Matheson1.930.57110%0
WPG N. Pionk1.800.6309%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.800.36116%0
MTL J. Armia1.520.31015%0
WPG M. Appleton1.510.44016%0
MTL J. Slafkovský1.520.47015%0
WPG A. Lowry1.510.50119%1
MTL K. Dach1.400.35012%0
MTL J. Anderson1.410.28115%1
WPG H. Fleury1.400.2504%0
MTL A. Xhekaj1.410.2105%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.330.56119%1
MTL A. Newhook1.310.37017%0
WPG C. Miller1.330.2806%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.200.36115%0
WPG M. Barron1.200.21011%0
MTL C. Dvorak1.240.32112%0
MTL L. Hutson1.110.4913%1
MTL K. Guhle1.110.2706%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.110.3615%0
WPG L. Stanley1.000.2204%0
MTL E. Heineman1.000.26013%0
MTL J. Evans0.900.34011%0
MTL J. Barron0.900.1806%0
WPG R. Kupari0.920.1707%0
MTL D. Savard0.800.2604%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.