Game Recap: MTL 5, WPG 1, February 4, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL5

FinalWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night

WPG1

MTL beat WPG 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 4.35 expected goals to 5.24. WPG outshot MTL 37 to 27. J. Anderson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Perfetti had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Montembeault stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	2	2	5
WPG	1	0	0	1

1st 6:07WPGK. ConnorPP0.15 xG
1st 16:26MTLO. Kapanen0.39 xG
2nd 5:28MTLJ. Anderson0.10 xG
2nd 6:44MTLL. Hutson0.09 xG
3rd 10:57MTLB. GallagherPP0.23 xG
3rd 19:46MTLP. DanaultEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

MTLWPG

27Shots on goal37

4.35Expected goals5.24

55Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play1/4

21Hits15

11Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways21

8Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.35 xGWPG 5.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 5 scored

WPG36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Anderson	RW	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	2	15:21	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	1	2	3	1	2	0	+2	2	12:38	1:18
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:21	2:30
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	15:18	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:17	1:03
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	0	13:44	0:54
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	11:07	0:58
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:56	2:39
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:25	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	15:27	2:15
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:11	2:33
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	12:34	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	0	21:31	1:06
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	21:02	2:26
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:03	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	24:50	0:01
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:47	0:02
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	6	1	0	-2	0	24:10	5:28
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	23:43	5:28
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	20:24	5:16
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	0	20:06	5:16
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:06	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	14:42	2:34
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	14:14	1:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	14:04	1:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:45	1:12
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:04	0:14
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:58	0:14
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:18	0:14
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	2	27:12	5:28
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	-1	0	20:29	0:14
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:44	0:12
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:34	0:14
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:28	1:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	26	22	4	.846	54:30	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:17K. Dach14:14C. Caufield13:12

Line 2J. Slafkovský13:32I. Demidov11:38O. Kapanen11:08

Line 3J. Evans10:06Z. Bolduc10:09J. Veleno9:04

Line 4B. Gallagher9:12J. Anderson10:14P. Danault9:26

Pair 1L. Hutson18:36N. Dobson16:01

Pair 2M. Matheson16:08K. Guhle16:07

Pair 3A. Carrier12:16J. Struble11:45

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:25K. Connor14:48A. Iafallo9:37

Line 2A. Lowry13:03C. Perfetti12:24G. Vilardi12:42

Line 3N. Niederreiter11:34V. Namestnikov11:33J. Toews10:31

Line 4M. Barron7:34C. Koepke5:48G. Nyquist11:03

Pair 1D. DeMelo17:38J. Morrissey18:37

Pair 2D. Samberg17:28E. Salomonsson14:12

Pair 3L. Schenn10:29L. Stanley12:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, WPG 3.2	MTL 5, WPG 1
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	MTL 25.4, WPG 26.3	MTL 27, WPG 37
Win chance	WPG 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	6	1.26	1	41%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.6	5	0.75	0	30%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	1.21	1	40%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.56	2	11%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.84	0	16%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.86	1	32%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	5	0.60	0	21%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	1	0.64	1	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.8	1	0.84	0	24%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	2	0.46	0	9%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.6	4	0.46	1	19%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	1	0.31	3	13%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	0	0.75	0	18%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.87	1	10%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.4	4	0.40	0	19%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	1	0.29	0	12%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	2	0.45	0	17%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	4	0.28	0	4%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	3	0.40	1	13%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	0	0.38	0	17%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.3	0	0.12	0	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	0	0.35	1	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	0	0.34	1	15%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	0	0.43	0	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	4	0.38	0	14%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.1	3	0.27	3	14%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	3	0.33	0	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.33	0	8%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	2	0.33	0	11%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.14	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.