Game Recap: MTL 2, WPG 1, October 25, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL2

FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Every game that night

WPG1

MTL beat WPG 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.96 expected goals to 3.62. WPG outshot MTL 34 to 21. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Scheifele had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Fowler stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	2	0	2
WPG	0	0	1	1

2nd 7:19MTLL. Hutson0.13 xG
2nd 11:04MTLK. Guhle0.01 xG
3rd 15:24WPGI. Rosen0.17 xG

Team Stats

MTLWPG

21Shots on goal34

2.96Expected goals3.62

56Shot attempts73

195v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play0/4

31Hits29

18Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes0

21Giveaways17

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.96 xGWPG 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL20 on goal, 2 scored

WPG34 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	15:50	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	16:22	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:58	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:06	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	15:01	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	14:32	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:18	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:15	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:26	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:42	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
F. Xhekaj	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	10:17	0:00
K. Guhle	D	1	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	23:10	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	21:12	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	19:25	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	25:37	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	2	20:32	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	34	33	1	.971	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	18:32	5:26
I. Rosen	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	15:35	1:15
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	7	3	0	0	25:04	6:44
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	24:23	6:16
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	24:01	6:19
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:22	2:42
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	13:37	0:11
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	12:07	0:00
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	10:46	0:20
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	10:24	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:14	1:32
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	9:12	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	16:50	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	25:21	5:15
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:14	0:14
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	17:39	2:12
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	17:19	0:21
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	15:55	0:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	19	2	.905	58:25	Loss
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield15:50J. Slafkovský16:22O. Kapanen14:18

Line 2J. Anderson12:06A. Newhook13:54C. Kreider11:24

Line 3P. Danault13:59A. Texier12:26Z. Bolduc11:42

Line 4K. Dach12:01J. Evans12:16F. Xhekaj10:17

Pair 1M. Matheson20:00K. Guhle20:55

Pair 2L. Hutson21:09N. Dobson17:04

Pair 3A. Carrier16:20A. Xhekaj9:22

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele18:09C. Perfetti17:31K. Connor17:56

Line 2A. Lowry13:26I. Rosen14:20D. Mercer12:40

Line 3A. Iafallo12:07V. Björck10:26G. Vilardi12:55

Line 4M. Barron10:24C. Koepke9:12N. Niederreiter7:42

Pair 1N. Pionk19:55D. Samberg19:49

Pair 2D. DeMelo15:38H. Fleury16:50

Pair 3M. Ferraro16:58E. Salomonsson15:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 12 overs hit (67%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+130	-150	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+138	-140	5	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+130	-150	4	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+150	-160	3	Over
MTL N. Dobson	2.5	+142	-175	1	Under
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	+120	-140	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-125	+120	2	Over
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	+114	-125	3	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	-120	+100	1	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-160	+132	7	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-138	+130	3	Over
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	-135	+130	2	Over

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+575	–	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+131	-165	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2100	-2800	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+700	–	1	Over
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+460	-550	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1600	-4000	1	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+550	-900	1	Over
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+280	-370	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+750	-800	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+155	-175	2	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+260	-285	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+186	-220	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+160	-215	1	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+138	-160	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+114	-145	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+180	-200	1	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under

6 of 20 overs hit (30%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-180	+165	2	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+128	-145	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-225	+180	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+260	-360	1	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-170	+145	1	Over
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-220	+170	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under

0 of 12 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+220	-250	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+500	-650	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+235	-250	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+220	-250	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+260	-295	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+160	-210	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+210	-300	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+170	-200	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+270	-500	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+290	-300	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+320	-450	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WPG S. Skinner	25.5	-115	-120	19	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL A. Carrier	1.5	-170	+120	4	Over
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	-160	+115	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	+105	-145	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, WPG 3.0	MTL 2, WPG 1
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	MTL 25.7, WPG 27.4	MTL 21, WPG 34
Win chance	MTL 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	5	1.14	0	40%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	0	0.86	2	34%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.4	4	0.71	0	26%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	7	1.14	0	36%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.55	1	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	3	0.72	1	24%	0
WPG N. Pionk	2.1	3	0.58	0	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	2	0.78	1	30%	0
WPG D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.43	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	1	0.89	1	12%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	2	0.38	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	0	0.49	0	20%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	2	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	3	0.35	0	17%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	0	0.40	0	9%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL C. Kreider	1.4	0	0.54	0	24%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	2	0.44	0	17%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	1	0.44	0	15%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.3	2	0.27	1	13%	1
MTL A. Texier	1.2	1	0.39	0	15%	0
WPG V. Björck	1.2	1	0.29	0	15%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	0	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.37	1	8%	1
WPG M. Ferraro	1.0	3	0.23	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.37	0	13%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.18	1	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.8	2	0.26	0	10%	0
MTL F. Xhekaj	0.8	1	0.14	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	1	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	1	0.29	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.