Game Recap: NSH 6, BOS 3, March 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH6

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

NSH beat BOS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 1.99. NSH outshot BOS 30 to 21. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Saros stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	2	1	3	6
BOS	1	1	1	3

1st 4:25BOSC. Coyle0.24 xG
1st 5:32NSHT. Novak0.11 xG
1st 11:33NSHR. O'Reilly0.19 xG
2nd 5:08BOSJ. Oesterle0.03 xG
2nd 6:25NSHS. Stamkos0.20 xG
3rd 5:35BOSM. Geekie0.16 xG
3rd 8:28NSHJ. Marchessault0.23 xG
3rd 9:31NSHR. O'Reilly0.12 xG
3rd 17:52NSHM. JankowskiEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

NSHBOS

30Shots on goal21

3.91Expected goals1.99

64Shot attempts51

285v5 shots on goal19

0/0Power play0/2

16Hits36

14Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways20

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.91 xGBOS 1.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 6 scored

BOS21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	2	1	3	2	0	2	+2	0	17:23	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	2	16:33	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	14:32	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:08	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:50	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:40	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:26	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:06	0:00
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:45	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:09	0:00
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:40	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	24:20	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:17	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:31	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	18:18	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	18:10	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	-2	19:22	3:29
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	19:18	2:48
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-2	18:05	2:26
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	17:08	1:24
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	17:03	2:34
G. Merkulov	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:08	1:12
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:42	0:31
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	15:19	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:19	1:21
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	12:40	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	11:44	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	9:03	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+1	18:20	0:52
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	17:31	0:15
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	24:05	3:08
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	19:08	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	18:14	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	17:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	29	24	5	.828	58:52	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, BOS 3.0	NSH 6, BOS 3
Total goals	5.7	9
Shots on goal	NSH 28.7, BOS 28.6	NSH 30, BOS 21
Win chance	BOS 56%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.6	4	1.41	2	46%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	2	0.94	1	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	1	0.74	1	30%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	4	0.74	3	30%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.3	3	0.69	1	25%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	1	0.67	1	26%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.64	3	23%	2
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	0	0.80	1	23%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.43	0	11%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	1	0.37	2	14%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.7	2	0.56	1	22%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	0	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	2	0.46	1	18%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	1.4	2	0.56	0	11%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.4	2	0.23	0	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	0	0.26	0	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.23	1	12%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.33	1	12%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.2	0	0.22	0	9%	0
BOS G. Merkulov	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	2	0.27	0	13%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.2	2	0.30	0	14%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	3	0.22	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.23	0	9%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	2	0.14	0	3%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	0	0.41	0	11%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	1	0.22	1	4%	1
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.18	1	3%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	0.9	3	0.23	1	10%	1
BOS J. Viel	0.9	0	0.14	0	8%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	3	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.5	2	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.