Game Recap: NSH 2, BOS 3 (OT), January 27, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTTue, Jan 27, 2026Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.62. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. J. Swayman stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	0	1	1	0	2
BOS	1	1	0	1	3

1st 13:16BOSH. Lindholm0.02 xG
2nd 2:48BOSM. Geekie0.15 xG
2nd 19:25NSHR. JosiPP0.09 xG
3rd 13:17NSHN. Blankenburg0.05 xG
OT 0:15BOSD. Pastrnak0.40 xG

Team Stats

NSHBOS

30Shots on goal28

2.62Expected goals2.58

64Shot attempts45

225v5 shots on goal21

1/4Power play0/3

16Hits25

8Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.62 xGBOS 2.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 2 scored

BOS27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:45	3:53
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	3	4	0	0	2	19:46	4:14
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:29	3:35
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	2	22:19	4:16
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:59	1:55
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:57	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:54	0:54
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:04	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	2	15:42	0:55
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:04	0:53
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	3:05	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	0	29:59	4:15
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:14	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:41	0:55
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	25:24	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:13	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:05	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	28	25	3	.893	59:37	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	7	3	0	+2	2	23:46	3:44
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:10	3:12
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:53	1:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	+2	0	14:04	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:24	3:39
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:31	1:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	14:10	0:59
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:03	3:27
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	9:20	0:07
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	8:07	0:11
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	27:14	3:51
H. Lindholm	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	4	19:13	1:07
J. Aspirot	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:35	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	15:08	0:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:53	0:14
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	30	28	2	.933	60:15	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly16:24L. Evangelista15:15F. Forsberg16:32

Line 2J. Marchessault14:38M. McCarron12:49C. Smith13:09

Line 3S. Stamkos14:42M. Bunting13:48E. Haula12:20

Line 4M. Wood5:57F. Svechkov3:05

Pair 1R. Josi20:56B. Skjei21:13

Pair 2A. Wilsby14:05N. Perbix11:13

Pair 3A. Englund7:40N. Blankenburg9:28

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak17:44M. Geekie15:06E. Lindholm7:27

Line 2C. Mittelstadt12:23P. Zacha12:59V. Arvidsson12:02

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov10:55M. Eyssimont7:56F. Minten14:30

Line 4S. Kuraly9:16M. Kastelic8:38T. Jeannot8:59

Pair 1C. McAvoy18:14J. Aspirot15:09

Pair 2N. Zadorov16:32A. Peeke15:23

Pair 3H. Lindholm15:37M. Lohrei12:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, BOS 3.3	NSH 2, BOS 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	NSH 28.9, BOS 27.7	NSH 30, BOS 28
Win chance	BOS 53%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	7	1.33	2	40%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	3	0.95	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	2	0.92	1	19%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.5	3	0.59	0	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	3	0.85	1	35%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	2	0.67	1	18%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	2	0.79	1	30%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	3	0.89	1	28%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	4	0.55	0	25%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	1	0.75	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	5	0.51	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	1	0.42	0	9%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	1	0.39	0	16%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	3	0.67	1	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.66	0	20%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	1	0.39	1	7%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.4	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.29	0	13%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.3	0	0.20	0	8%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	0	0.44	1	18%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	2	0.28	0	11%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	0	0.52	0	17%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	2	0.33	0	8%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.22	1	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.30	1	6%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	1	0.39	1	15%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.36	1	7%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.25	0	6%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	2	0.14	1	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.