Game Recap: NSH 0, BOS 6, October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH0

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

BOS6

BOS beat NSH 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.79 expected goals to 3.08. D. Pastrnak led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Hoglander had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. M. DiPietro stopped 28 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	0	0
BOS	2	2	2	6

1st 3:49BOSC. Mittelstadt0.08 xG
1st 16:38BOSE. LindholmPP0.12 xG
2nd 9:46BOSD. Pastrnak0.11 xG
2nd 17:21BOSJ. Peterka0.67 xG
3rd 6:50BOSM. Kastelic0.20 xG
3rd 15:00BOSD. Pastrnak0.15 xG

Team Stats

NSHBOS

28Shots on goal31

3.08Expected goals4.79

61Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play1/3

22Hits9

10Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.08 xGBOS 4.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 0 scored

BOS31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	3	0	-3	0	17:30	1:03
J. Drury	C	2	2	2	-1	0	17:27	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	1	2	1	-1	0	16:59	0:57
A. Edstrom	C	0	3	1	-1	0	16:58	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	0	-2	0	16:35	1:00
J. Marchessault	RW	3	0	0	-2	0	16:10	1:56
M. Bourque	C	3	0	0	-2	0	14:36	0:04
S. Stamkos	C	2	0	0	-2	0	14:04	0:59
N. Hoglander	LW	4	0	0	0	0	12:12	1:00
R. Schaefer	LW	1	3	1	0	0	11:36	0:00
M. Wood	RW	1	1	1	-1	0	11:24	0:53
R. Colton	C	2	3	0	0	0	11:19	0:04
R. Josi	D	2	0	1	-1	2	24:29	1:56
A. Wilsby	D	1	0	0	-1	0	22:09	0:00
N. Hague	D	2	1	0	-2	4	20:13	0:00
J. Struble	D	1	1	0	-2	0	18:07	0:00
B. Skjei	D	2	1	2	-2	0	17:46	0:04
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	-2	0	16:11	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	31	25	6	.806	60:00	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	2	2	4	3	0	0	+4	0	16:37	1:30
P. Zacha	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+4	0	16:11	1:20
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+3	0	17:52	1:36
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:03	1:36
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	14:14	1:05
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	13:51	1:11
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:43	1:24
M. Poitras	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:34	1:15
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:28	1:35
J. Hagens	C	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	15:04	1:40
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:34	1:28
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:22	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	4	4	1	1	0	+3	2	19:01	1:30
F. Brunet	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:18	1:41
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	20:21	1:14
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:14	1:10
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	19:48	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	19:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. DiPietro	28	28	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1J. Marchessault14:14M. Bourque14:32A. Kerfoot13:47

Line 2A. Edstrom15:01J. Drury15:08R. Schaefer11:36

Line 3S. Stamkos13:05R. O'Reilly13:36F. Forsberg16:27

Line 4N. Hoglander11:12M. Wood10:31R. Colton11:15

Pair 1R. Josi20:56A. Wilsby19:58

Pair 2N. Hague19:40J. Struble17:38

Pair 3B. Skjei15:22I. Lyubushkin14:47

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:07P. Zacha14:47J. Peterka16:16

Line 2M. Khusnutdinov12:56F. Minten13:21M. Geekie13:06

Line 3C. Mittelstadt13:27J. Hagens13:24E. Lindholm11:53

Line 4T. Jeannot12:10M. Kastelic12:09M. Poitras12:19

Pair 1N. Zadorov18:48W. Borgen18:48

Pair 2H. Lindholm18:05C. McAvoy17:31

Pair 3M. Lohrei18:01F. Brunet16:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	-105	-120	3	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-155	+125	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	+160	-180	3	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+132	-155	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+140	-145	2	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	-125	+110	1	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	-140	+120	3	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	-150	+125	1	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	+135	-180	1	Under
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-160	+140	3	Over
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	+100	-115	3	Over
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-180	+142	2	Over
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	+145	-190	1	Under
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	-155	+120	1	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	+105	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-135	+120	1	Under

5 of 35 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+145	-165	2	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+280	-320	1	Over
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
NSH I. Lyubushkin	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+480	-650	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+225	-280	0	Under
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+850	-2500	1	Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
BOS M. Poitras	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+480	-800	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2400	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+460	-800	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+240	-330	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under

4 of 21 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	-111	+100	4	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+275	-375	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+380	-525	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+330	-400	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+105	-125	2	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+105	-135	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under

7 of 21 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	1.5	+145	-180	4	Over
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+145	-200	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	-165	+140	4	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+160	-185	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+205	-250	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+112	-132	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+240	-250	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+105	-132	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+105	-132	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+180	-230	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	-135	+125	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	-160	+140	2	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-145	+140	0	Under

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+250	-300	1	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+380	-425	1	Over
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-275	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+260	-375	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BOS M. DiPietro	22.5	-110	-105	28	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	-190	+135	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	+115	-160	1	Under
NSH I. Lyubushkin	1.5	-115	-125	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-140	+100	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, BOS 3.2	NSH 0, BOS 6
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	NSH 26.9, BOS 28.1	NSH 28, BOS 31
Win chance	BOS 58%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	3	1.29	4	39%	2
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	0	0.98	0	37%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.80	0	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	2	0.81	0	34%	0
BOS J. Peterka	2.1	3	0.69	1	27%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	3	0.60	0	25%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	1	0.83	0	28%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.78	0	29%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	1	0.77	2	25%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.9	1	0.53	0	22%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	3	0.68	1	24%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	1	0.73	4	14%	0
NSH M. Bourque	1.8	3	0.43	0	18%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.8	2	0.34	0	15%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	1	0.38	0	17%	0
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	4	0.43	0	14%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	2	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.3	0	0.27	0	15%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	1	0.36	0	5%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	1	0.37	0	8%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.2	2	0.34	0	9%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.44	0	16%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	2	0.50	1	16%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	4	0.27	1	11%	1
BOS F. Brunet	1.1	0	0.23	1	5%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	2	0.35	1	11%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	4	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	2	0.32	0	7%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	0	0.36	0	14%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.24	1	10%	0
BOS W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.25	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.14	0	8%	0
NSH I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.