Game Recap: NSH 2, BUF 3, March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 2.76 expected goals to 2.63. J. Zucker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Lyon stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
BUF	0	2	1	3

2nd 1:17NSHZ. L'Heureux0.15 xG
2nd 12:39BUFT. Thompson0.14 xG
2nd 14:17BUFJ. Zucker0.61 xG
3rd 0:16BUFJ. Doan0.16 xG
3rd 16:08NSHM. WoodPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

NSHBUF

25Shots on goal24

2.63Expected goals2.76

59Shot attempts53

145v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

15Hits20

11Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways14

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.63 xGBUF 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 2 scored

BUF23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:20	3:03
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	2	17:53	3:04
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	17:03	3:04
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	0	15:57	1:20
Z. L'Heureux	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:26	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:48	3:03
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:12	1:10
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:48	1:10
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:00	1:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	10:47	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:49	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:21	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	25:56	3:06
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:35	0:09
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	20:59	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	18:41	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:44	1:07
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	24	21	3	.875	58:52	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	21:19	2:02
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	18:53	2:19
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:37	1:59
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:11	1:25
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:46	0:36
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	14:42	2:17
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	14:10	1:37
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:32	2:01
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	14:27	0:04
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:32	0:04
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	9:12	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:55	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	24:36	2:15
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	24:36	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:11	1:45
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	23:02	1:07
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:38	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	10:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:15R. O'Reilly14:46J. Marchessault13:25

Line 2F. Forsberg13:54M. Wood13:40L. Evangelista14:15

Line 3Z. L'Heureux12:33J. Kemell12:56E. Haula11:52

Line 4T. Jost10:12F. Svechkov9:49O. Wiesblatt8:34

Pair 1R. Josi19:22B. Skjei17:56

Pair 2N. Hague18:43J. Barron12:49

Pair 3R. Ufko12:37N. Perbix15:57

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:50T. Thompson15:29P. Krebs13:12

Line 2J. Doan14:46J. Norris14:00N. Ostlund14:10

Line 3J. Zucker12:25R. McLeod12:26J. Quinn12:33

Line 4S. Carrick7:27B. Malenstyn7:37Z. Benson8:38

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:22R. Dahlin19:36

Pair 2B. Byram18:31O. Power18:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Zucker BUF Faces NSH, his team until May 20241 G, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, BUF 3.6	NSH 2, BUF 3
Total goals	6.8	5
Shots on goal	NSH 29.5, BUF 29.4	NSH 25, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 58%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.6	4	1.15	1	42%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	4	0.89	0	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	2	0.84	1	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	0	0.91	1	32%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	0.94	1	20%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.80	1	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	0	0.62	1	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	3	0.64	0	18%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	3	0.71	1	24%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	2	0.83	1	27%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	2	0.65	1	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	5	0.70	1	25%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.8	3	0.45	0	18%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	0	0.71	1	29%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.7	0	0.22	0	12%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	2	0.47	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	2	0.47	0	14%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.35	0	9%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.74	0	21%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	3	0.33	1	16%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	1	0.46	0	10%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.23	0	9%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.57	0	14%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	2	0.22	1	10%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	0	0.49	1	18%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.44	0	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	3	0.22	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	2	0.23	0	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.