NSH beat CAR 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.51. CAR outshot NSH 35 to 16. L. Evangelista led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Saros stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 5:14NSHM. BuntingPP0.45 xG
- 2nd 4:01NSHL. Evangelista0.22 xG
- 2nd 6:02CART. HallPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 12:48NSHL. Evangelista0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.02 xGCAR 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:55 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 2:14 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:37 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 2:08 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 1:47 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:10 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 2:18 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:53 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:11 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:52 | 2:32 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 | 1:45 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:42 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 3:28 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 3:57 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 3:53 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:38 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:24 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:28 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:40 | 3:47 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:39 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:34 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:15 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 56:38 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.7, CAR 3.4 | NSH 3, CAR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.3, CAR 31.5 | NSH 16, CAR 35 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 0 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.3 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.