Game Recap: NSH 3, CAR 6, December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat NSH 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.25 expected goals to 2.00. CAR outshot NSH 40 to 22. J. Blake led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. B. Bussi stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	3	3
CAR	3	1	2	6

1st 8:01CART. HallPP0.42 xG
1st 9:55CARN. EhlersPP0.14 xG
1st 19:44CARW. Carrier0.28 xG
2nd 15:46CARJ. Blake0.15 xG
3rd 4:45CARS. Aho0.22 xG
3rd 6:26NSHM. BuntingPP0.06 xG
3rd 8:12CARJ. Blake0.23 xG
3rd 9:09NSHM. Wood0.09 xG
3rd 11:36NSHF. Forsberg0.13 xG

Team Stats

NSHCAR

22Shots on goal40

2.00Expected goals5.25

46Shot attempts66

155v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play2/6

19Hits12

14Blocked shots9

14Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways17

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.00 xGCAR 5.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH21 on goal, 3 scored

CAR38 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	4	13:51	1:31
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:48	2:50
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:03	2:16
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:35	2:43
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:54	2:41
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:05	1:30
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	16:02	1:30
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	2	14:54	0:26
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	12:31	1:29
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:21	0:01
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	11:47	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	6:35	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	24:00	0:07
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:56	2:41
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	4	22:20	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	2	22:16	1:40
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:46	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	38	32	6	.842	48:12	Loss
J. Annunen	2	2	0	1.000	11:48

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	2	19:11	8:25
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	+2	0	16:29	3:44
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:36	3:37
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:29	6:29
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-1	0	16:00	6:22
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	15:56	3:24
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:06	0:18
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:56	1:36
W. Carrier	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	11:02	0:14
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	15:15	6:40
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:03	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:18	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:55	6:24
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+3	0	20:04	0:18
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	+3	0	20:06	0:39
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	19:07	3:42
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:54	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	11:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	22	19	3	.864	59:56	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:52R. O'Reilly12:18L. Evangelista14:33

Line 2F. Svechkov12:00M. Wood10:13F. Forsberg11:01

Line 3J. Marchessault10:24E. Haula9:17M. Bunting11:52

Line 4M. McCarron6:34T. Jost8:11R. Schaefer6:35

Pair 1R. Josi17:15N. Hague16:13

Pair 2B. Skjei15:36A. Wilsby15:26

Pair 3S. Stastney10:32N. Blankenburg9:48

CAR

Line 1E. Robinson12:29J. Kotkaniemi12:18T. Hall11:54

Line 2J. Staal11:34J. Martinook12:30W. Carrier10:44

Line 3N. Ehlers11:03L. Stankoven11:03J. Blake10:22

Line 4A. Svechnikov8:35S. Jarvis7:01S. Aho7:16

Pair 1S. Walker15:04K. Miller15:19

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere14:45J. Chatfield15:00

Pair 3A. Nikishin13:18J. Nystrom11:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.5, CAR 3.3	NSH 3, CAR 6
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	NSH 24.0, CAR 31.6	NSH 22, CAR 40
Win chance	CAR 64%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	3	0.78	2	31%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	5	0.98	1	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.8	1	0.85	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	2	1.05	1	34%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	5	0.83	3	27%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	3	0.55	1	20%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.2	3	0.36	0	12%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	5	0.60	3	22%	2
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	1	0.55	1	17%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.1	1	0.64	0	15%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	2	0.58	0	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	1.9	1	0.66	0	29%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	2	0.78	1	14%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	3	0.68	0	24%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	3	0.57	1	20%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.45	1	18%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.6	1	0.50	1	19%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.49	1	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.6	2	0.37	0	9%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	2	0.39	1	16%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.44	1	17%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	2	0.29	1	14%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	1	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	1	0.30	1	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.41	1	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	0	0.26	0	9%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.1	1	0.23	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	2	0.31	0	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.28	1	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	3	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	2	0.15	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.