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Game Recap
NSH0
CGY2
CGY beat NSH 2-0, with the chances close: 3.60 expected goals to 3.05. D. Wolf stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 3rd 6:38CGYD. Miromanov0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:51CGYB. ColemanEN0.65 xG
Team Stats
NSHCGY
29Shots on goal33
3.05Expected goals3.60
66Shot attempts71
255v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/4
38Hits21
17Blocked shots19
15Penalty minutes11
11Giveaways15
10Takeaways15
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.05 xGCGY 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 2:03 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:54 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:05 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:05 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:56 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:51 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:59 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:57 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:04 | 2:33 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:06 | 1:37 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 59:08 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:48 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:14 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 3:23 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:50 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:40 | 3:47 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 3:45 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:37 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 2:34 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:07 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:32 | 1:34 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:04 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:06 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 3:53 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:21 | 2:11 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:14 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:08 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11:35 | 0:05 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, CGY 3.2 | NSH 0, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 29.2, CGY 31.3 | NSH 29, CGY 33 |
| Win chance | CGY 53% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.8 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.7 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.7 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.4 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.