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Game Recap
NSH4
CGY1
NSH beat CGY 4-1, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 3.45. R. O'Reilly scored three for NSH. R. O'Reilly had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Annunen stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 4:21NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 11:37NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 18:22CGYM. Backlund0.14 xG
- 3rd 9:19NSHF. Svechkov0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:33NSHR. O'ReillyEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
NSHCGY
28Shots on goal32
3.10Expected goals3.45
41Shot attempts82
205v5 shots on goal25
2/2Power play0/3
11Hits9
30Blocked shots6
13Penalty minutes11
18Giveaways12
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.10 xGCGY 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:40 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:53 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:36 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:47 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 14:40 | 2:04 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:22 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 2:04 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:05 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 18:40 | 0:05 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:09 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:08 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:07 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:42 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 3:06 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:51 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15:47 | 1:45 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:52 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:09 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:50 | 2:55 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:58 | 0:09 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:09 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 3:19 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:03 | 1:44 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:09 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.9, CGY 3.2 | NSH 4, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.4, CGY 31.9 | NSH 28, CGY 32 |
| Win chance | CGY 56% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.8 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.6 | 6 | 0.61 | 3 | 22% | 3 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.5 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.