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Game Recap
NSH4
FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night
CGY3

NSH beat CGY 4-3, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.19. NSH outshot CGY 36 to 23. M. Bunting led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). E. Haula had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Saros stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NSH2114
CGY2013
  1. 1st 1:56CGYY. Kuznetsov0.03 xG
  2. 1st 11:19NSHE. Haula0.16 xG
  3. 1st 12:52NSHE. Haula0.11 xG
  4. 1st 13:41CGYR. Andersson0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 4:08NSHM. Bunting0.04 xG
  6. 3rd 12:49CGYB. Coleman0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 19:31NSHN. Hague0.03 xG

Team Stats

NSHCGY
36Shots on goal23
2.89Expected goals2.19
63Shot attempts51
325v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/2
23Hits26
15Blocked shots12
28Penalty minutes26
20Giveaways15
7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.89 xGCGY 2.19 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdCGY goal, 1:56NSH goal, 11:19NSH goal, 12:52CGY goal, 13:41NSH goal, 4:08CGY goal, 12:49NSH goal, 19:31

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH36 on goal, 4 scored
CGY22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BuntingLW134200+3216:231:04
E. HaulaLW202600+1218:290:48
S. StamkosC022231+3018:110:54
M. McCarronC011220+11212:390:00
R. O'ReillyC000402-1018:501:12
F. ForsbergLW000120-2018:150:57
C. SmithRW000171+1517:330:00
L. EvangelistaRW000101-2017:330:58
T. JostC0001010012:390:12
R. SchaeferLW0001410012:230:00
F. SvechkovC0000100210:460:48
N. HagueD101101+1518:210:15
R. JosiD0003010022:520:56
N. PerbixD000324+1020:090:00
B. SkjeiD000310-1018:290:52
N. BlankenburgD0003110016:160:50
A. WilsbyD000201-1014:430:00
J. BarronD000000+109:290:14
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Saros23203.87060:00Win
J. Annunen000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CoronatoRW022000+1018:002:05
B. ColemanLW101241+1218:491:49
J. HuberdeauLW011100-1018:301:46
M. BacklundC011100+2017:572:03
N. KadriC000101-2022:002:07
M. FrostC000100-1016:272:08
Y. SharangovichC000300-1016:211:47
J. FarabeeLW000020-2015:260:08
A. KlapkaRW0000800014:590:00
C. ZaryC0000000011:321:58
R. LombergLW000200057:280:00
J. BeecherC0000000173:060:00
R. AnderssonD101402+2026:061:33
M. WeegarD011420-2023:322:19
Y. KuznetsovD101224-1021:160:00
K. BahlD000263+1222:300:00
J. HanleyD000001-1012:310:09
H. BrzustewiczD000020-109:530:08
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf36324.88959:37Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1E. Haula16:16M. Bunting15:19S. Stamkos16:15
Line 2R. O'Reilly14:35F. Forsberg16:13L. Evangelista16:35
Line 3C. Smith15:10M. McCarron10:54R. Schaefer12:01
Line 4T. Jost11:40F. Svechkov9:50
Pair 1R. Josi19:20N. Perbix16:48
Pair 2N. Hague15:50N. Blankenburg13:46
Pair 3B. Skjei14:12A. Wilsby14:06

CGY

Line 1B. Coleman15:49M. Coronato15:32M. Backlund15:23
Line 2J. Huberdeau14:53M. Frost13:56J. Farabee13:57
Line 3N. Kadri18:20Y. Sharangovich12:13R. Lomberg7:28
Line 4C. Zary9:34A. Klapka14:36
Pair 1R. Andersson21:54K. Bahl21:40
Pair 2M. Weegar19:44Y. Kuznetsov18:53
Pair 3J. Hanley11:22H. Brzustewicz9:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNSH 2.7, CGY 3.1NSH 4, CGY 3
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalNSH 27.3, CGY 29.6NSH 36, CGY 23
Win chanceCGY 55%NSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NSH F. Forsberg3.210.88034%0
CGY N. Kadri3.110.90029%0
NSH L. Evangelista2.410.62018%0
CGY B. Coleman2.420.61124%1
NSH S. Stamkos2.420.77233%0
NSH R. Josi2.430.70016%0
CGY M. Backlund2.310.55119%0
CGY M. Coronato2.200.58222%0
CGY R. Andersson2.140.58114%1
CGY M. Weegar2.140.51111%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich2.030.60026%0
NSH R. O'Reilly2.040.76025%0
CGY J. Farabee1.900.45019%0
NSH M. Bunting1.820.45419%1
CGY M. Frost1.810.50017%0
CGY J. Huberdeau1.710.78123%0
NSH E. Haula1.660.38215%2
NSH B. Skjei1.630.3709%0
CGY C. Zary1.500.43017%0
NSH M. McCarron1.320.22110%0
CGY A. Klapka1.300.32014%0
NSH C. Smith1.110.2109%0
NSH N. Blankenburg1.130.2806%0
NSH F. Svechkov1.100.24010%0
NSH T. Jost1.010.2008%0
CGY R. Lomberg1.020.1809%0
NSH N. Perbix1.030.2606%0
NSH A. Wilsby1.020.1904%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov0.920.3118%1
CGY H. Brzustewicz0.900.1204%0
CGY K. Bahl0.920.2506%0
NSH N. Hague0.910.1914%1
NSH R. Schaefer0.910.24014%0
NSH J. Barron0.800.1806%0
CGY J. Beecher0.700.1608%0
CGY J. Hanley0.600.1403%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.