Game Recap: NSH 3, CHI 2, October 25, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalFri, Oct 25, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

NSH beat CHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.88 expected goals to 3.68. G. Nyquist led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. J. Saros stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	2	1	3
CHI	1	1	0	2

1st 2:55CHIC. Smith0.11 xG
2nd 5:14CHIC. Bedard0.21 xG
2nd 13:41NSHF. Forsberg0.18 xG
2nd 16:59NSHG. NyquistSH0.15 xG
3rd 13:07NSHB. SkjeiPP0.03 xG

Team Stats

NSHCHI

34Shots on goal29

2.88Expected goals3.68

63Shot attempts60

255v5 shots on goal19

1/5Power play0/5

21Hits10

16Blocked shots16

15Penalty minutes15

9Giveaways12

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.88 xGCHI 3.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH33 on goal, 3 scored

CHI28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Nyquist	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	14:55	2:50
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	7	1	0	+1	0	19:10	7:04
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	12:51	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	11:46	2:33
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	10:45	2:41
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:14	6:42
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:47	0:51
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:25	6:51
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	4	3	2	0	0	18:02	7:02
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:27	2:14
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	7	12:01	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:20	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:14	0:04
B. Skjei	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	2	20:10	2:26
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	25:56	7:26
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	19:08	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	2	11:15	0:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	29	27	2	.931	59:58	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	21:13	6:24
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:04	2:08
C. Smith	C	1	0	1	2	0	4	+1	0	12:03	3:21
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:15	6:31
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:52	6:14
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:32	0:07
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	16:19	0:13
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	15:48	6:29
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	13:55	3:22
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:39
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:54	0:07
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	5	8:31	3:29
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	25:24	4:45
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:26	0:31
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	11:28	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	28:05	5:10
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	0	2	15:38	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	34	31	3	.912	57:59	Loss
D. Commesso	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.6, CHI 2.6	NSH 3, CHI 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NSH 33.6, CHI 26.9	NSH 34, CHI 29
Win chance	NSH 65%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	4.2	7	1.20	1	42%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	3.5	1	1.11	0	40%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.3	4	0.92	0	37%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.1	3	1.01	0	19%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.1	4	0.88	1	25%	1
CHI S. Jones	2.4	3	0.52	0	12%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.51	1	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	1	0.87	0	29%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	3	0.52	1	11%	1
CHI T. Hall	2.2	4	0.59	0	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	4	0.60	0	24%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	2.2	2	0.76	0	26%	0
CHI N. Foligno	2.1	1	0.54	0	20%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.8	1	0.84	2	23%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.7	1	0.38	0	16%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	4	0.37	0	17%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	2	0.60	1	21%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.5	2	0.29	1	14%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	1.5	0	0.50	0	16%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.4	1	0.37	0	16%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	1	0.28	1	10%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.1	2	0.25	0	3%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.31	2	5%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.23	1	9%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.18	1	7%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	2	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.25	1	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	0	0.25	0	9%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	1	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.25	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.