CHI beat NSH 6-2, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.54. R. Donato led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Foligno had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. P. Mrazek stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CHI | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.54 xGCHI 3.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 4:50 |
| C. Sissons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:53 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:10 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:49 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 5:07 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:51 | 4:06 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:54 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Kemell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:59 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:12 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:02 | 4:26 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:32 | 1:34 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Gravel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 30 | 24 | 6 | .800 | 59:38 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Donato | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:33 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:03 | 2:32 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:33 |
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:09 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:09 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:15 | 2:32 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:08 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 1:08 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 22:50 | 1:22 |
| S. Jones | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 2:19 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.2, CHI 2.4 | NSH 2, CHI 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 33.0, CHI 25.8 | NSH 33, CHI 30 |
| Win chance | NSH 62% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.9 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.2 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 3 | 0.94 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.3 | 4 | 0.56 | 4 | 21% | 2 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 4 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NSH K. Gravel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.