Game Recap: NSH 4, CHI 3, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

NSH beat CHI 4-3, with the chances close: 3.36 expected goals to 3.26. L. Evangelista led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Greene had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	3	1	4
CHI	1	1	1	3

1st 19:10CHIR. Donato0.05 xG
2nd 1:46NSHM. Wood0.07 xG
2nd 7:18NSHS. Stamkos0.49 xG
2nd 15:14CHIR. GreenePP0.23 xG
2nd 16:27NSHL. Evangelista0.08 xG
3rd 7:15NSHR. O'Reilly0.24 xG
3rd 10:28CHIT. Teravainen0.15 xG

Team Stats

NSHCHI

29Shots on goal27

3.36Expected goals3.26

59Shot attempts66

255v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/4

21Hits15

20Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways16

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.36 xGCHI 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 4 scored

CHI25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	19:04	2:07
L. Evangelista	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	15:36	2:13
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	15:24	2:01
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	12:00	0:50
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	10:34	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	18:01	1:39
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	16:18	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:15	2:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	14:42	2:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:07	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	11:09	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	10:22	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	24:31	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	21:21	0:41
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	16:19	1:38
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	+1	4	24:07	1:59
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:42	2:52
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	24	3	.889	59:47	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:47	4:56
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:32	5:02
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	19:28	2:26
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:51	2:55
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	-1	0	15:08	2:45
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	8:59	0:39
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	23:23	5:12
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:46	5:21
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:37	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	14:01	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	10:06	1:26
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	17:03	2:21
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	15:52	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:01	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	20:33	5:28
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:49	0:34
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:27	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	10:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	29	25	4	.862	58:45	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:15R. O'Reilly13:38L. Evangelista12:41

Line 2M. McCarron12:17M. Bunting12:29O. Wiesblatt10:01

Line 3F. Forsberg12:37E. Haula11:10M. Wood10:32

Line 4R. Schaefer10:22F. Svechkov10:20T. Jost10:28

Pair 1B. Skjei18:25N. Perbix19:35

Pair 2R. Josi17:12N. Hague16:33

Pair 3N. Blankenburg12:16S. Stastney9:44

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard16:56A. Burakovsky15:31R. Greene14:19

Line 2T. Teravainen13:08T. Bertuzzi12:35F. Nazar12:36

Line 3J. Dickinson12:14I. Mikheyev13:18R. Donato12:10

Line 4C. Dach8:40O. Moore8:00

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:53A. Levshunov13:36

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk14:15S. Rinzel14:42

Pair 3C. Murphy9:57W. Kaiser14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.0, CHI 2.9	NSH 4, CHI 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	NSH 29.7, CHI 25.3	NSH 29, CHI 27
Win chance	NSH 52%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	4	0.93	0	36%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	5	1.08	0	30%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.7	3	0.63	2	20%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	0	0.83	0	20%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.74	2	32%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	2	0.74	1	24%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	0	0.80	0	29%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	3	0.67	1	25%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.71	2	25%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	0	0.53	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	3	0.59	0	22%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.8	1	0.46	1	18%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	3	0.43	0	12%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	2	0.68	1	21%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	2	0.83	1	24%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	3	0.40	1	10%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.26	0	10%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	4	0.41	1	17%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	1	0.47	1	14%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	0	0.32	1	8%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.37	0	16%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	1	0.32	1	5%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.49	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	2	0.22	1	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	1	0.22	1	11%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	2	0.26	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	2	0.21	1	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	0	0.30	0	3%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.0	2	0.20	0	8%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.